Prediction markets have shifted positively regarding the normalization of traffic at the Strait of Hormuz following comments from President Trump suggesting a potential deal with Iran is imminent. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, indicates that over $19.7 million has been wagered on the outcome, reflecting significant market interest in the geopolitical situation. The change in sentiment follows Trump's statement that a deal had been approved by the highest level of Iranian leadership and that scheduled strikes were called off.

Market Probabilities

Bettors on Kalshi currently assign a 46% probability to traffic returning to normal "Before Sep 1, 2026," representing an increase of 17%. The outlook for later dates shows even higher confidence, with probabilities of 51% for "Before Oct 1, 2026" and 56% for "Before Nov 1, 2026".

Geopolitical Context

President Trump stated that the strait will officially open as soon as a deal is signed, suggesting this could happen "very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe." However, Iran has indicated that a final deal with the U.S. has not yet been reached. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global oil shipments, and its closure has severely impacted maritime traffic.

Traffic Data

According to data from the UN Trade and Development, the average number of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in February, before the conflict escalated, was 129 per day. Current tracking data indicates that only 3 ships are transiting the strait, highlighting the extent of the disruption to global trade.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, which officially begins Thursday in Mexico City, is projected to deliver a significant economic boost to the United States while simultaneously posing productivity challenges for employers. The tournament runs through the July 19 final across 16 host cities in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, with 11 U.S. cities hosting matches. Bank of America, citing research firm OpenEconomics, estimates the event could add approximately 0.6% to U.S. GDP and 0.4% to global GDP this year. Economists suggest this surge acts as a tailwind for the economy, potentially contributing to more persistent near-term inflation.

Despite the economic upside, the tournament's schedule clashes with the American workday, raising concerns about productivity losses. Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimated that if all employed American soccer fans took a day off to watch a major match, U.S. employers could lose as much as $30.2 billion. Even a single hour of workplace distraction across the workforce could result in losses of around $4.4 billion. In the 11 host cities, where stadium traffic and watch-party crowds are expected to heighten disruption, a single missed workday could cost employers as much as $8.2 billion.

Economic Impact and Job Growth

OpenEconomics projects the World Cup will generate $40.9 billion in added global GDP, $20.8 billion in labor earnings, and 824,000 full-time-equivalent jobs worldwide. In the U.S. alone, the forecast includes 5.2 million in attendance, including 1.2 million international visitors. This influx is expected to generate $11.1 billion in direct spending on tickets, travel, lodging, food, and retail. Part of the economic lift may already be reflected in recent labor market data, as May nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside at 172,000. Bank of America economists attributed much of this strength to temporary factors around the tournament and seasonal noise, noting that gains were heavily concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector.

Sectors in the Spotlight

For investors, the tournament funnels spending into specific sectors. Travel and airlines stand to capture much of the 1.2 million international arrivals, with carriers such as Delta Air Lines Inc., United Airlines Holdings Inc., and American Airlines Group Inc. exposed to the surge. Lodging flows to operators like Marriott International Inc. and Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc., while payment networks Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. process the cross-border spending. Media exposure runs through Fox Corp. and Comcast Corp., which hold broadcast rights. Additionally, sportsbooks like DraftKings Inc. and Flutter Entertainment plc, alongside rideshare and delivery names Uber Technologies Inc. and DoorDash Inc., are expected to benefit from the betting and consumption wave.