Columbia Bank survey shows US businesses poised for growth
Columbia Bank's 2026 Business Barometer reveals that US small and midsize businesses are prioritizing investments over cost-cutting, driven by AI advances and expectations of increased profitability. However, 59% plan to delay major decisions for at least six months due to economic uncertainty. The survey also highlights significant financial losses from fraud, with 70% of businesses affected in the past year.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Columbia Bank today released the findings from its 2026 Business Barometer, an annual study examining the outlook, priorities and decision-making of nearly 1,200 small and middle market enterprises across the United States. The survey indicates that business leaders are approaching the next 12 months with relative confidence and an appetite for growth, fueled by a notable year-over-year improvement in the outlook of smaller enterprises. While businesses are confident in their 12-month outlook, near-term volatility and current headwinds from tariffs, inflation and rising energy costs are influencing their strategies.
Investment Priorities and Economic Outlook
This year's results point to growing confidence among business leaders that efficiency and productivity gains over the next 12 months will translate to increased profitability and greater opportunities to invest in technology, expansion and hiring between now and the middle of 2027. A record number of both small and middle market businesses say they are prioritizing making investments over cutting costs. However, their optimism remains measured, as 3 in 5 indicate they plan to delay major decisions for at least six months as they monitor current pressures.
| Metric | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Prioritize investments over cost-cutting | 63% |
| Plan to delay major decisions for 6 months | 59% |
| Anticipate increased demand | 72% |
| Anticipate increased revenue | 67% |
| Anticipate increased profitability | 59% |
AI Drives Growth Expectations
Advances in AI capabilities are shaping expectations for future growth, with the survey indicating that recent advances are in part driving the positive 12-month outlook. Over the next 12 months, most businesses believe AI advances will increase productivity (96%), increase employee satisfaction and retention (92%), and create the need for more skilled or specialized roles (89%). AI is now the top investment priority and spiked significantly as a concern for both small and middle market businesses, indicating more enterprises see its fast-emerging capabilities as critical to remain competitive.
| AI Impact | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Increase productivity | 96% |
| Increase employee satisfaction and retention | 92% |
| Create need for skilled roles | 89% |
| Deliver efficiencies and increase headcount | 63% |
| Strengthen business overall | 59% |
Fraud and Cybersecurity Concerns
Cybersecurity and fraud threats have proven costly, driving investment priorities as fraud risks evolve. In the past 12 months, 7 in 10 businesses have experienced financial loss from fraud, with fake vendor scams and phishing attacks cited as the most common schemes. Cybersecurity ranks as a top three investment priority, and businesses of all sizes are planning to invest in related fraud safeguards.
| Fraud Impact | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Small businesses with losses $5,000-$100,000 | 43% |
| Small businesses with losses >$10,000 | 23% |
| Middle market companies with losses >$50,000 | 22% |
| Upgrade payment or authentication technology | 44% |
| Implement fraud protection solutions with bank | 42% |
| Implement stricter vendor verification processes | 41% |
Tariff Volatility and Strategic Responses
The unpredictability of tariff implementation has been more challenging than direct tariff costs for businesses. While negative tariff impacts skew towards middle market companies, input from leaders indicates that delays, exemptions and shifting percentage amounts have made planning difficult. To manage actual tariff-related costs, businesses have employed numerous strategies, with small businesses more likely to pass increases on to customers and middle market companies more likely to cover costs with loans or lines of credit.
| Tariff Impact | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Small businesses: no impact or benefited | 67% |
| Middle market companies: harmful | 48% |
| Expect tariff volatility to remain significant for 1+ year | 85% |
| Expect tariff volatility to remain significant for 3+ years | 40% |
| Businesses that paid tariffs seeking a refund | 74% |
"This year's study indicates that small and middle market businesses are approaching the next 12 months with relative confidence and an appetite for growth, which bodes well for the broader economy," said Tory Nixon, President of Columbia Bank. "At the same time, near-term volatility and current headwinds are real. Business leaders are ready to invest but are timing those decisions carefully."
The Columbia Bank 2026 Business Barometer surveyed 1,186 owners, executives and financial decision-makers from U.S. small and middle market businesses. The online survey was conducted in partnership with DHM Research and targeted leaders at companies with $500,000 to $500 million in annual revenue. The survey has a 2.7% margin of error and was fielded from April 28 to May 7, 2026.
How will the planned six-month delay in major decision-making impact the timing of projected revenue and profitability growth through 2027?
As AI implementation creates a demand for specialized roles, how will businesses address the potential talent gap and associated labor costs?
With 85% of businesses expecting tariff volatility to persist for over a year, what long-term structural changes will companies make to their supply chains?
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