Veteran trader Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin to decline below $50,000 before bottoming in early October, subsequently initiating a cycle that pushes the asset above $250,000 by 2029. Brandt outlined this trajectory in an interview with Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, emphasizing that market sentiment must deteriorate significantly before a sustainable floor is established.

Projected Bitcoin Price Targets

Brandt identified October 4 as his specific target for the cycle low, basing this projection on long-term historical cycles observed since Bitcoin's inception. His base case anticipates a bottom in the high $40,000s, potentially preceded by a $10,000 rebound. He noted that while an 80% correction from a $120,000 peak would imply a drop to the $20,000s, Bitcoin's increasing maturity as an asset makes such a severe drawdown less probable this cycle.

Market Dynamics and Sentiment

According to Brandt, true market bottoms are characterized by panic and high volume, contrasting with the current neutral mood. He suggested that sentiment at the bottom will likely reflect the belief that "Bitcoin's time has come and gone." The anticipated bull run towards 2029 is expected to include intermittent corrections of 20% to 40%, designed to eliminate weak hands while strong holders accumulate. Brandt views Bitcoin as a superior store of value alongside gold, positioning both assets as long-term shorts against fiat currencies.

Altcoins and External Opportunities

Regarding the broader market, Brandt described AI stocks as an "obscene bubble" comparable to the dotcom era in 2000, warning that current valuations could lead to regret within two to three years. He suggested that precious metals are nearer to a price bottom, while Bitcoin is closer to a time bottom. For a hypothetical $10,000 portfolio, he recommended a scale-down buying plan split between gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Brandt also pointed to indicators suggesting a potential altcoin season through the summer. He highlighted Ethereum, projecting a possible bottom around $1,850 with a subsequent move toward $2,100 to $2,500. Cardano was noted for displaying a recognizable bottoming pattern around $0.16, with the potential to double from that level. His advice to traders focused on purchasing assets with the strongest charts showing classical bottoming formations rather than lagging assets hoping for catch-up moves.

Bitcoin is witnessing a sharp divergence in investor behavior as the largest whale wallets accumulate aggressively while mid-sized holders distribute coins. This shift in supply dynamics suggests a potential change in market structure, with larger investors absorbing supply from smaller cohorts. The transfer of coins toward stronger hands is often viewed as a constructive medium-term signal for the asset, even as broader market demand indicators show weakness.

Whale Accumulation vs. Mid-Sized Distribution

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates that wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have increased their 60-day net accumulation to roughly 66,700 BTC. This figure approaches the 68,000 BTC level recorded on June 16 and marks the cohort's strongest buying activity since February 17, when net inflows briefly exceeded 106,000 BTC.

In contrast, wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have distributed approximately 77,800 BTC. This represents one of the group's most aggressive selling periods in recent months. On April 25, this same group accumulated more than 92,000 BTC, preceding a roughly 29% correction in Bitcoin's price about 10 days later.

CryptoQuant noted that while wallet cohort data alone cannot predict price direction, the ongoing transfer of supply toward larger investors is a positive medium-term indicator.

Spot Demand Weakens Amid Stable Prices

Separately, CryptoQuant highlighted a deterioration in Bitcoin's spot demand. The firm's 30-day Spot Demand metric rebounded to roughly -80,000 BTC in early July but has since weakened to nearly -170,000 BTC. Despite this decline, Bitcoin's price has remained relatively stable.

The price stability is attributed to easing selling pressure and short covering in derivatives markets, which have offset weaker spot buying. However, the firm warned that derivatives demand alone is insufficient to sustain a lasting rally. Without stronger spot market participation, the market remains structurally fragile.

If spot selling remains subdued, derivatives-driven momentum could continue supporting a short-term rebound. However, if spot selling accelerates again, the current rally could end in a significant wave of long liquidations. Bitcoin gained a modest 2% over the past month, with most weekly sessions ending in a range-bound pattern.