Bitcoin ETFs return to green after $8B outflow streak
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $273 million in inflows over two weeks, halting an eight-week outflow streak that exceeded $8 billion. Analysts note derivatives are driving the rebound, warning that weak spot demand could lead to liquidations. Bitcoin faces resistance between $65,191 and $65,727.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin is consolidating near $65,000 as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $273 million in net inflows over the past two weeks, ending an eight-week streak of outflows that exceeded $8 billion. The capital return, comprising $197.4 million in the week ended July 10 and $75.67 million the following week, signals a tentative shift in sentiment. However, analysts warn that the current price action is driven by derivatives rather than spot demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rebound without meaningful buyer support.
ETF Inflows Versus Historical Outflows
The recent inflows mark a reversal from the heavy selling pressure witnessed in May and June. Despite the positive two-week tally, the $273 million total barely exceeds the smallest single-week outflow recorded during the downturn, which stood at $226.84 million in the week ended June 18. The most severe week saw $1.79 billion exit the funds in the period ending June 26. This disparity suggests that while capital flight has paused, the recovery lacks the volume required to immediately repair the damage inflicted during the eight-week sell-off.
Derivatives Drive the Rebound
CryptoQuant analyst ScenarioX noted that derivatives are fueling the current technical rebound rather than spot buyers. He stated that while derivatives-driven momentum may persist, a rally without meaningful spot demand is likely to result in a significant long liquidation event. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 29, reinforcing the view that the market remains in fear, which carries reflexive selling risk if leverage is tested. The options market reflects this cautious optimism, with the put/call ratio falling to a six-month low of 0.59 as traders rebuild call exposure in the $64,000-$65,000 range.
Technical Levels and Resistance
Bitcoin is trading within a tight Fibonacci cluster, compressing between the 0.618 retracement at $63,575 and the 0.786 level at $65,191. The Supertrend resistance at $65,727 sits just above the current price, creating a confluence zone between $65,191 and $65,727 that bulls must clear to trigger a significant rally. Technical analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized that a clean break above $65,000 is necessary to alter the sideways-to-lower structure. The 20-day SMA at $62,595 sits below the 50-day SMA at $63,686, but the death cross from November 2025 keeps the long-term trend in repair mode.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Price | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout Zone | $65,191 - $65,727 | Resistance |
| Upside Target | $67,250 | Resistance |
| Fibonacci Support | $63,575 | Support |
| Downside Target | $61,303 | Support |
What specific catalysts are required to shift the current derivatives-driven momentum back to sustainable spot demand?
How likely is a long liquidation event to occur if Bitcoin fails to break the $65,727 resistance level?
Could the current low Fear and Greed Index reading signal a contrarian buying opportunity or indicate further downside risk?
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