Bitcoin ETFs are likely following gold ETFs' 22-year playbook of explosive gains, painful drawdowns, and recoveries that test investor patience, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. This structural parallel arises because both Bitcoin and gold ETFs are wrappers around non-yielding assets that generate no cash flow, meaning investor sentiment drives performance rather than earnings or government backing. This dynamic makes demand fickle, arriving in waves rather than building steadily, and capable of producing both price explosions and prolonged stagnation.

Balchunas compared BlackRock's IBIT, which currently manages roughly $60 billion in assets, to the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). IBIT briefly touched $100 billion in October when Bitcoin hit its all-time high but held above that threshold for only a few hours before pulling back. Balchunas likened this to GLD briefly surpassing SPY to become the world's largest ETF in 2011, only to spend eight years trying to reclaim that level. The constructive aspect of this comparison is that each gold ETF cycle set a higher high water mark than the one before it, suggesting the pattern for Bitcoin ETFs may be two steps forward, one step back rather than a permanent peak.

Bitcoin Decouples From Tech Stocks

Analyst Joao Wedson flagged a separate development reinforcing this thesis from a different angle. Until the end of 2025, Bitcoin tracked closely with the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF (IGV). That correlation is now breaking down. Wedson argued this decoupling is a positive development, bringing Bitcoin closer to Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision of an asset that moves independently of traditional markets. He suggested the next crypto bull market could catch many analysts off guard if they continue applying traditional market correlations to Bitcoin's price behavior.

Current Market Standing

Bitcoin is down roughly 30% year to date and about 50% from its October record. Gold sits near $4,000 an ounce, down 7% year to date but still 19% higher over the past 12 months. BlackRock reported this week that its total digital asset AUM fell 40% year over year to roughly $49 billion, reflecting price declines across both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs did record their first week of net inflows since early May last week, pointing to early signs that sentiment is beginning to stabilize.

Onramp, the bitcoin-centric financial services platform, today released a research report titled Back to Basics, which identifies the current market conditions as a historic accumulation window for Bitcoin. The report notes that Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its late-2025 high, marking the shallowest drawdown in the asset's history by its own standards. This decline contrasts with the S&P 500, which sits within 1% of its all-time high, the Nasdaq within 4%, and gold within 24% of its peak.

The report details prior Bitcoin drawdowns, including 93% in 2011, 85% from 2013 to 2015, 83% from 2017 to 2018, and 77% from 2021 to 2022, all of which ended in new all-time highs. The current cycle's ~50% decline is characterized as the shallowest on record, occurring while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, indicating extreme fear. Back to Basics is organized into three sections covering foundational ideas behind owning Bitcoin, the range of Bitcoin exposure vehicles, and data on the current drawdown relative to prior cycles.

Michael Tanguma, Founder and CEO of Onramp, emphasized the importance of direct ownership, stating that many investors hold paper claims against Bitcoin rather than the asset itself. The report argues that paper exposure reintroduces counterparty risk, whether through exchange balances, fund shares, yield-bearing products, or shares in Bitcoin-holding companies. Brian Cubellis, Chief Strategy Officer at Onramp, added that the fundamentals have not changed despite the price drop, presenting a compelling accumulation opportunity.

In conjunction with the report, Onramp has launched several offers for clients. New and existing clients receive 50% off trading fees on every Bitcoin buy and sell through September 7. Additionally, the company has introduced recurring buys, a feature allowing investors to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin automatically with no fees. The first 100 clients to open an Onramp Bitcoin IRA will pay no first-year fees, and Multi-Institution Custody is available at a reduced rate of $100 per month.

The release of Back to Basics also marks an expansion of Onramp Media, the company's editorial arm. Onramp debuted Signal vs. Noise, a new weekly show where hosts discuss top market stories, and established a dedicated editorial news desk covering money and markets. The full report and all promotional offers are available on the Onramp website.