Onramp, the bitcoin-centric financial services platform, today released a research report titled Back to Basics, which identifies the current market conditions as a historic accumulation window for Bitcoin. The report notes that Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its late-2025 high, marking the shallowest drawdown in the asset's history by its own standards. This decline contrasts with the S&P 500, which sits within 1% of its all-time high, the Nasdaq within 4%, and gold within 24% of its peak.

The report details prior Bitcoin drawdowns, including 93% in 2011, 85% from 2013 to 2015, 83% from 2017 to 2018, and 77% from 2021 to 2022, all of which ended in new all-time highs. The current cycle's ~50% decline is characterized as the shallowest on record, occurring while the Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, indicating extreme fear. Back to Basics is organized into three sections covering foundational ideas behind owning Bitcoin, the range of Bitcoin exposure vehicles, and data on the current drawdown relative to prior cycles.

Michael Tanguma, Founder and CEO of Onramp, emphasized the importance of direct ownership, stating that many investors hold paper claims against Bitcoin rather than the asset itself. The report argues that paper exposure reintroduces counterparty risk, whether through exchange balances, fund shares, yield-bearing products, or shares in Bitcoin-holding companies. Brian Cubellis, Chief Strategy Officer at Onramp, added that the fundamentals have not changed despite the price drop, presenting a compelling accumulation opportunity.

In conjunction with the report, Onramp has launched several offers for clients. New and existing clients receive 50% off trading fees on every Bitcoin buy and sell through September 7. Additionally, the company has introduced recurring buys, a feature allowing investors to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin automatically with no fees. The first 100 clients to open an Onramp Bitcoin IRA will pay no first-year fees, and Multi-Institution Custody is available at a reduced rate of $100 per month.

The release of Back to Basics also marks an expansion of Onramp Media, the company's editorial arm. Onramp debuted Signal vs. Noise, a new weekly show where hosts discuss top market stories, and established a dedicated editorial news desk covering money and markets. The full report and all promotional offers are available on the Onramp website.

Bitcoin could gain support from cooling inflation and fading expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike, according to Wolfe Research Chief Economist Stephanie Roth. The cryptocurrency climbed to a three-week high of $65,000 following the inflation report, lifting sentiment across the broader market. Prediction platform Polymarket now assigns a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates, up from roughly 60% earlier this week.

Inflation Trends and Fed Policy

In an interview with Anthony Pompliano on July 16, Roth highlighted her expectations of a slowdown in inflation through the summer as several temporary pressures begin to fade. Roth outlined that the impact of tariff-related price increases has been smaller than feared and should continue to ease as the economy moves further past the initial impact. AI-related inflation could also moderate as it would become disinflationary over the longer term with companies using the technology to cut costs and improve productivity.

The cooler CPI report significantly reduced the likelihood of a July rate hike. Roth said a rate cut remains unlikely this year unless the labor market weakens materially. Core inflation is still running near 3%, well above the Fed’s 2% target. However, simply removing expected rate hikes could ease financial conditions.

Market Implications for Bitcoin

Bond yields could decline as traders price out additional tightening, supporting equities, cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets. Bitcoin typically benefits when traders expect lower interest rates and easier liquidity conditions because investors become more willing to hold volatile assets. The latest inflation report weakens one of the market’s biggest bearish catalysts: renewed Fed tightening.

Bitcoin could also benefit if declining inflation revives the debasement trade, particularly if government spending and global money supply continue to expand while real interest rates decline. However, Roth said Bitcoin and gold are increasingly trading on fundamentals rather than fears that the Fed will lose its independence or allow inflation to spiral.