Ulta Beauty raises FY26 guidance after Q2 EPS beat; analysts revise targets

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Reviewed by
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Key Highlights
  • Ulta Beauty reported Q2 EPS of $6.55, beating estimates of $6.16, and sales of $3.036 billion, beating $2.955 billion estimates
  • The company raised FY26 diluted EPS guidance to $28.70-$29.00 from $28.36-$28.80 and increased net sales growth outlook to 6.7%-7.2%
  • Bank of America lowered its price target to $650 from $685, while Goldman Sachs raised its target to $667 from $648
  • Ulta increased its FY26 share repurchase authorization to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion
  • Shares fell 3.6% to $520.68 on Friday despite the positive earnings surprise
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Ulta Beauty Inc. (NASDAQ: ULTA) raised its fiscal 2026 financial guidance following second-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations. The specialty beauty retailer logged diluted earnings per share of $6.55, beating the consensus estimate of $6.16 by 6.33 percent.

Quarterly sales reached $3.036 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $2.955 billion by 2.76 percent. This represents an 8.88 percent increase over sales of $2.788 billion recorded in the same period last year. Comparable sales increased 3.8%, outperforming the prior year's 6.7% growth. Sales growth outpaced the U.S. beauty market, with prestige gaining share while mass remained flat.

Updated Fiscal 2026 Outlook

Based on strong first-half performance, Ulta updated its full-year outlook across key metrics:

Metric Prior Guidance Updated Guidance
Net sales growth 6% to 7% 6.7% to 7.2%
Comparable sales growth 2.5% to 3.5% 3.2% to 3.7%
Operating income growth 6.5% to 9% 8.3% to 9.3%
Diluted EPS $28.36 to $28.80 $28.70 to $29.00

The company also increased its stock repurchase plan for fiscal 2026 to $1.8 billion from $1.5 billion. As of August 1, 2026, $1.0 billion remained available under the current $3.0 billion share repurchase program announced in October 2024. Ulta repurchased shares worth $236 million in the quarter, bringing year-to-date buybacks to $791 million. The company expects to use the remaining authorization by the end of fiscal 2026.

Analyst Revisions

Following the results, several analysts adjusted their forecasts for Ulta Beauty:

  • Bank of America Securities analyst Lorraine Hutchinson maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $685 to $650.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $648 to $667.

CEO Kecia Steelman stated that the team delivered strong sales, profit, and earnings growth, demonstrating disciplined execution of the Ulta Beauty Unleashed strategy.

Business Performance Details

Fragrance posted high-teens comparable sales growth, hair care grew high-single digits, and makeup was roughly flat. Skincare and wellness declined modestly, though wellness grew double digits. Services increased in mid-single digits, while K-Beauty sales rose in the double digits, with nearly half coming from exclusive brands or products. Ulta added five K-Beauty brands and 15 brands overall, including Bath & Body Works, Frenchie, and Junoco.

Ulta opened 13 net new U.S. stores and delivered its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit e-commerce growth, with Q2 online sales rising in the high-teens. More than 50% of online orders were fulfilled through its 1,500-plus stores in the quarter. TikTok generated over 100 million impressions, while the company held more than 40,000 in-store events.

Loyalty members grew 3%, and average spend per member increased in the quarter. Comparable sales were driven by higher average ticket. Gross profit margin decreased slightly to 39.1% compared to 39.2% in the prior year, primarily due to the impact of the Space NK business mix. Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 8.2% to $802.8 million, primarily due to the acquisition of Space NK. However, as a percentage of net sales, SG&A expenses decreased to 26.4% compared to 26.6%.

Operating income grew 10.1% to $379.6 million, expanding marginally to 12.5% of sales from 12.4% last year. Ulta ended the quarter with $213 million in cash and short-term investments and $340 million in short-term debt. Inventory was flat at $2.4 billion, while inventory per store declined 4.1%.

Forward-Looking Indicators

For the second half of fiscal 2026, Ulta expects sales growth of 4%-5%, including comparable sales growth of 2%-3%, with two-year stacked comps above 8%. Operating profit is expected to grow 6%-8% and diluted EPS 9%-12% in the second half. The company projects third-quarter comparable sales to be lower than in the fourth quarter due to seasonality and planned investments ahead of the holiday period. Ulta said mass makeup was hurt by limited newness and tougher comparisons, but sees potential second-half recovery from stronger makeup trends and new launches.

Technical Setup

At $547.00, Ulta is trading above the 20-day SMA ($529.66), 50-day SMA ($494.59), and 100-day SMA ($504.74). However, the stock remains below the 200-day SMA ($555.56), suggesting rallies may face supply as they approach that zone.

The MACD indicator is below its signal line with a negative histogram, pointing to cooling upside momentum. The moving-average structure shows a bullish near-term alignment with the 20-day SMA above the 50-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA following a death cross in May.

  • Key Resistance: $566.50 — a nearby ceiling just above the current price.
  • Key Support: $493.00 — a floor close to the 50-day SMA zone.

Benzinga Edge Rankings

Ulta’s Benzinga Edge scorecard highlights a quality-and-growth-leaning profile with weak momentum:

  • Momentum: Weak (Score: 22.12)
  • Quality: Strong (Score: 93.51)
  • Value: Neutral (Score: 54.77)
  • Growth: Strong (Score: 84.75)

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between the prior quarter’s actual EPS ($7.74) and the current quarter’s actual result ($6.55) indicates a sequential decline in profitability. However, the beat against the lowered estimate ($6.16) suggests underlying operational resilience despite the tough year-over-year comparisons. The 13.32 percent increase in earnings over the same period last year ($5.78) underscores successful growth execution in a challenging retail environment. Operating income grew 10.1% to $379.6 million, expanding marginally to 12.5% of sales from 12.4% last year.

Price Action

Ulta shares fell 3.6% to trade at $520.68 on Friday. In premarket trading Friday, shares were down 2.11% at $528.70.

How might the increased $1.8 billion share repurchase authorization influence Ulta's stock price trajectory as it approaches the key resistance level of $566.50 and the 200-day SMA?

Given the modest decline in skincare and flat makeup sales, what specific product launches or marketing strategies is Ulta planning to drive a recovery in these categories during the second half of fiscal 2026?

Will the integration of Space NK continue to pressure gross profit margins, or will operational efficiencies offset the impact as the company scales this business segment?

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Ulta Beauty raises FY26 EPS guidance to $28.70-$29.00 range

scanx
Reviewed by
Riya DScanX News Team
Key Highlights
  • Ulta Beauty raises FY26 GAAP EPS guidance to $28.70-$29.00 from $28.36-$28.80
  • Sales guidance lifted to $13.223B-$13.285B from $13.136B-$13.260B
  • New sales midpoint exceeds $13.209B analyst estimate
  • EPS midpoint of $28.85 trails $28.94 consensus estimate
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*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.

Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) raised its full-year financial guidance for fiscal 2026, lifting both earnings per share and sales outlooks above analyst expectations. The specialty beauty retailer adjusted its projections upward, signaling confidence in its near-term performance trajectory.

Updated Guidance Figures

The company revised its GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance from a previous range of $28.36 to $28.80 to a new range of $28.70 to $29.00. This update places the midpoint of the new guidance slightly below the consensus analyst estimate of $28.94, though the upper bound remains competitive with market expectations.

Simultaneously, Ulta Beauty increased its total sales guidance for FY2026. The new revenue outlook stands at $13.223 billion to $13.285 billion, up from the prior range of $13.136 billion to $13.260 billion. The midpoint of the revised sales guidance exceeds the analyst estimate of $13.209 billion, indicating stronger-than-anticipated top-line momentum.

Metric Previous Guidance New Guidance Analyst Estimate
GAAP EPS $28.36 - $28.80 $28.70 - $29.00 $28.94
Total Sales $13.136B - $13.260B $13.223B - $13.285B $13.209B

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between the EPS and sales guidance updates reveals distinct market positioning. While the sales guidance midpoint ($13.254 billion) clearly beats the consensus estimate ($13.209 billion), the EPS guidance midpoint ($28.85) falls short of the estimate ($28.94). This suggests that while revenue growth is accelerating or holding firm, margin expansion may not be sufficient to fully offset cost pressures or other income fluctuations required to hit the higher EPS consensus. The company is prioritizing volume and top-line resilience over aggressive earnings leverage in this update.

What specific cost pressures or margin headwinds are preventing Ulta Beauty's EPS guidance midpoint from meeting analyst consensus despite strong sales growth?

How might Ulta's prioritization of top-line resilience over aggressive earnings leverage impact its valuation multiples relative to competitors in the specialty retail sector?

Which product categories or customer segments are driving the stronger-than-anticipated sales momentum, and is this growth sustainable into fiscal 2027?

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