TeraWulf Inc (NASDAQ: WULF) shares rose 1.69% to $15.90 on Monday following Kentucky Public Service Commission approval of a major power agreement for its Justified Data Campus.

The Aug. 21 order authorizes up to 482 MW of electric service in Hancock County, allowing Big Rivers Electric Corp. and Kenergy Corp. to implement the retail electric service agreement (RESA). The Commission concluded the deal protects existing ratepayers by ensuring TeraWulf bears project-specific costs.

Cost Allocation and Risk Structure

Under the approved structure, TeraWulf assumes responsibility for market, transmission, and delivery costs attributable to its load. This includes funding customer-specific infrastructure and providing substantial credit support.

The agreement features negotiated demand adders and customer charges that provide incremental contributions to Big Rivers Electric Corporation and Kenergy Corp. The PSC noted that direct pass-through of market and delivery costs prevents TeraWulf from receiving an unreasonable preference or subjecting other customers to prejudice.

Investment and Site Development

The Justified Data Campus is being developed at the former Century Aluminum Hawesville facility. Approximately 482 MW of existing transmission capability remains available following the closure of the aluminum smelter. Reusing this industrial infrastructure allows TeraWulf to pair large-scale power availability with site redevelopment for AI and high-performance computing workloads.

Based on current expected development costs of approximately $10 million to $12 million per MW of critical IT load, TeraWulf estimates a total investment of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion in site development and initial data halls. This figure excludes additional investment by customers in computing equipment and related infrastructure.

Technical Analysis

Despite the positive regulatory news, TeraWulf’s broader technical trend remains weak. The stock traded 6.8% below its 20-day simple moving average. It was also 23.4% below its 50-day average and 25.9% below its 100-day average.

Shares remained 11.1% below the 200-day moving average. The 20-day average sat below the 50-day average, signaling continued bearish pressure. However, momentum may be improving. The moving average convergence divergence indicator was above its signal line, and the histogram was positive, suggesting sellers may be losing control.

Traders are watching resistance near $17.50. That level is close to the 200-day simple moving average of $17.75 and the 200-day exponential moving average of $17.64. Support sits near $14.50.

TeraWulf shares have gained 76.48% over the past year. However, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $29.84.

What the Numbers Show

The capital intensity of the project highlights the scale of infrastructure required for AI data centers. With estimated costs ranging from $10 million to $12 million per MW, the total projected investment of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion underscores the significant financial commitment tied directly to securing and utilizing the 482 MW of available transmission capacity.

TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF) shares traded lower on Tuesday, falling 11.42% to $15.60, as broader declines in AI cloud services stocks weighed on investor sentiment. The drop reflects growing concerns over rising inflation and surging bond yields, which have soured appetite for high-growth companies that rely heavily on borrowed money to fund customer-driven capital spending.

Rising Oil Prices and Bond Yields Squeeze Growth Stocks

Oil prices spiked overnight after the Trump administration allowed a temporary ceasefire with Iran to expire, prompting Tehran to threaten a more aggressive military response. Traders interpreted this as a sign that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil, could face fresh disruption, feeding worries that energy-driven inflation could reaccelerate.

This dynamic directly impacts stocks like TeraWulf. When energy prices rise, inflation tends to run hotter, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify cutting interest rates. Bond markets reacted immediately, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.74% and the two-year yield up to 4.19%.

Higher bond yields hit AI infrastructure stocks hard for two reasons:

• Companies like TeraWulf are valued largely on profits investors expect years from now. Rising yields make those future profits worth less in today's dollars, as investors can earn more by holding bonds instead.
• Much of the sector's growth is tied to customer capital spending funded through borrowing. When borrowing costs climb, that spending becomes more expensive to finance, potentially slowing the demand these companies count on for growth.

TeraWulf's Chart Shows a Stock Still Fighting its Downtrend

TeraWulf shares are trading well below key trend lines watched by longer-term investors. The stock sits about 10.7% under the 20-day average of $17.56, roughly 26.5% under the 50-day average of $21.32, and around 11.6% under the 200-day average of $17.74.

When a stock sits this far below its major averages, rallies tend to face more resistance due to overhead supply from investors looking to sell into any bounce. The 20-day average sitting below the 50-day average points to weaker momentum over the past couple of months. However, the 50-day average still holding above the 200-day average suggests the stock's longer-term uptrend has been dented rather than fully broken.

The MACD has crossed above its signal line and is now reading positive territory on its histogram. This combination usually points to a fading downswing rather than confirmation that a new uptrend has taken hold.

Key Technical Levels

Two price levels stand out for traders. On the upside, the $17.50 area overlaps with both the 20-day and 200-day averages and could act as a ceiling if the stock tries to push higher. To the downside, $14.50 is the zone most likely to draw buyers back in if selling picks up again.

Zooming out, TeraWulf peaked in June, which also marked its 52-week high, before setting a swing low in July. The stock's recent move looks more like an early attempt to stabilize after that peak than a genuine return to an uptrend.