Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) will report its first fiscal quarter earnings on September 10. Analysts project revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, driven by continued demand for AI infrastructure services.

Earnings Expectations

The market anticipates strong performance in both revenue and remaining performance obligations (RPO). Key estimates for the quarter include:

For the second quarter, guidance is expected to show revenue growth of 31% to $21.17 billion. This follows a fourth fiscal quarter where revenue rose 21% to $19.2 billion, while RPO jumped $85 billion to $638 billion.

What the Numbers Show

Oracle’s aggressive capital raising contrasts with its operational growth metrics. The company raised $43 billion in debt and $5 billion in equity last year, with plans to raise another $40 billion. This heavy leverage supports its AI expansion but has weighed on the stock price, which fell from $341 in September 2025 to $114 in July. Investors remain cautious about the sustainability of AI growth amid warnings from prominent investors about potential bubble risks.

Technical Outlook

The stock has shown signs of stabilizing after its significant decline. ORCL shares have risen above the key resistance level of $133.95, a level seen in February, March, and April. Technical indicators suggest potential upward momentum:

• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 60.
• MACD lines have crossed the zero line.
• A put/call ratio of 0.48 indicates higher call option volume than puts.

Analysts point to $177 as a potential target, aligning with high call option volume. The forward P/E ratio stands at 19.6, lower than peers in the large-cap technology sector.

Oracle Corporation stock fell on Thursday, hitting a fresh 52-week low of $125.57, as deepening investor anxieties over massive artificial intelligence capital expenditures and cash burn counteracted the company’s recent cloud growth metrics. The decline comes despite Oracle leading competitors including Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Alphabet Inc. in the race to provide high-security, air-gapped cloud services to Japan, a project crucial for secure intelligence sharing between Tokyo and its allies.

The hardware and software giant reported that quarterly capital expenditure climbed to $16.49 billion. This surge contributed to a 162% increase in full-year capital expenditures, which reached $55.7 billion. Consequently, these infrastructure investments pushed Oracle’s free cash flow to a negative $23.7 billion, weighing heavily on market sentiment despite a 47% surge in cloud revenue and a contracted backlog reaching $638 billion.

Financial Performance and Outlook

Oracle reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter results, with revenue rising 21% to $19.2 billion. However, analyst projections highlight extended capex risks. BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski indicated that Oracle’s fiscal 2027 capital spending outlook remains a primary focal point, noting that capital expenditures could land between $80 billion and $100 billion as the company accelerates the development of non-Abilene Stargate campuses. BNP Paribas previously raised its fiscal 2027 capex estimate to $83 billion from $72 billion, well above the consensus estimate of approximately $60 billion.

Market Trends and Leadership

The market continues to evaluate these spending trends under new CFO Hilary Maxson. The longer-term chart remains decisively bearish: Oracle is trading 15.2% below its 20-day SMA, 29.9% below its 50-day SMA, and 34.5% below its 200-day SMA. The 20-day SMA sitting below the 50-day SMA reinforces the downtrend, and the death cross that formed in January keeps the bigger-picture trend pressure intact. Momentum is the key near-term story, with RSI at 27.42, an oversold reading that often signals the selling has become stretched.