Prominent investor Gary Black has warned investors not to "fall in love" with Tesla Inc. stock, criticizing what he described as a "cult" mentality among bulls who attack those questioning the company's valuation or performance. In a series of posts on X on August 2, 2026, Black argued that the debate around the electric vehicle maker has become polarized, with supporters resorting to personal attacks against posters offering thoughtful contrarian views. He emphasized that investment theses must evolve as companies mature, noting that his own view on Tesla shifted after it achieved profitability and joined the S&P 500.

Black highlighted that investors who bought Tesla over the past five years have underperformed a basket of random Nasdaq-100 (NDX) names. He rejected comparisons spanning 10 to 15 years, stating that the investment thesis was fundamentally different before Tesla achieved key milestones such as profitability and the Model Y becoming a major seller. While Tesla was his largest position from 2019 through 2023, Black now values the stock at $312, a figure he reiterated recently. He cautioned that the current market enthusiasm does not reflect underlying fundamentals, particularly regarding the company's autonomous driving ambitions.

Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology remains central to Tesla's current investment thesis, yet skepticism persists among analysts and investors. Black previously characterized Tesla's Cybercab expansion plans as "just for show" until the company achieves true autonomy, arguing that strong vehicle sales do not indicate a newfound infatuation with FSD capabilities. Tesla reported record net new FSD subscriptions in the second quarter, with more than 55% of North American deliveries including subscriptions. Global subscriptions approached 1.5 million, though the product remains labeled FSD (Supervised) and requires driver attention.

Wall Street analysts remain divided on Tesla's execution pace and valuation metrics. JPMorgan upgraded Tesla to neutral in June, suggesting that autonomy and robotics could reshape earnings while warning of execution risks. Morgan Stanley analysts subsequently stated that investors require evidence that Tesla's spending is strengthening its "physical AI moat." Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan questioned why Tesla's robotaxi fleet remained "in the dozens as opposed to hundreds," highlighting concerns about deployment speed. Forrester analyst Paul Miller noted that Tesla's unsupervised mileage remains far below that of Alphabet-backed Waymo.

Further scrutiny emerged regarding Tesla's safety claims. Reuters identified flaws in Tesla's FSD safety comparisons after consulting researchers and former employees, though Tesla did not answer detailed questions on the matter. Despite these concerns, Tesla shares were up 0.79% to $313.66 during pre-market trading on Monday. Benzinga Edge Rankings show Tesla scoring poorly on Momentum and Value metrics but providing satisfactory Growth and Quality scores.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Tesla's subscription growth and its autonomous fleet deployment highlights a tension in the current investment narrative. While global FSD subscriptions approached 1.5 million, indicating strong consumer interest in the software feature, the actual unsupervised mileage remains significantly lower than competitors like Waymo. This gap suggests that while revenue from FSD subscriptions is growing, the core promise of autonomous driving — which drives much of the long-term valuation multiple — faces execution hurdles. Investors relying solely on subscription numbers may overlook the slower pace of real-world autonomous deployment, which analysts like Colin Langan have flagged as a critical metric for validating the robotaxi thesis.

Investor Ross Gerber reported on July 31, 2026, that Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TSLA) Full Self-Driving (FSD) system nearly caused an accident while passing emergency vehicles, stating the technology "still has major issues." The incident occurred during a single ride where the vehicle twice slammed on its brakes as emergency vehicles with lights on passed quickly, raising safety concerns for shareholders and regulators monitoring autonomous driving progress.

Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, detailed the malfunction in a post on the social media platform X. He noted that previous versions of the FSD software struggled to differentiate between a fire truck and a dump truck. During his drive home, the car's aggressive braking response to emergency vehicles created a hazardous situation. "This is no good," Gerber wrote, emphasizing that the system's inability to correctly identify first-responder vehicles remains a critical flaw.

Regulatory and Political Context

The investor's criticism aligns with broader regulatory scrutiny of autonomous vehicles. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Administrator Jonathan Morrison had previously criticized autonomous vehicle companies for interfering with first-responder operations. Morrison demanded that AV manufacturers remedy these interference issues, highlighting a pattern of safety risks associated with current autonomous technologies.

Meanwhile, the political landscape for autonomous vehicles is shifting. The Donald Trump administration recently introduced an updated approach to self-driving regulations in the U.S. The Sean Duffy-led Department of Transportation (DOT) proposed measures aimed at accelerating the adoption and development of autonomous vehicles. These proposals include directing the NHTSA to grant temporary exemptions to companies like Zoox, signaling a push for faster deployment despite safety concerns.

Strategic Speculation on Tesla

Gerber's comments come amid reports that Tesla may be considering selling its Chinese business to facilitate a potential merger with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX). Although Elon Musk dismissed these reports as "absurdly fake news," Gerber suggested an alternative strategic move. He proposed that Tesla could sell its robots and robotaxi units to SpaceX, allowing Tesla to refocus solely on electric vehicle manufacturing.

Market Performance

Tesla shares were up 1.12% to $314.69 during overnight trading following the news. According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, Tesla scores poorly on Momentum and Value metrics but provides satisfactory Growth and Quality scores. The stock fails to show a favorable price trend across short, medium, and long-term horizons.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Tesla's satisfactory Growth and Quality scores versus its poor Momentum and Value ratings suggests investors are cautious about near-term valuation despite long-term potential. The recent negative commentary from a prominent investor like Gerber, combined with regulatory pressure from the NHTSA, adds headwind to the stock's momentum. While the DOT's pro-automation stance provides a tailwind for industry growth, specific safety incidents involving FSD remain a material risk factor for Tesla's autonomous driving timeline.