Indian stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open flat on Monday after experiencing five consecutive sessions of losses. Renewed concerns over US tariffs, relentless foreign capital outflow, and caution ahead of the quarterly results season are likely to keep investor sentiment weak.

Market Opening Indicators

The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a flat start for the Indian benchmark index, with Gift Nifty trading around the 25,796 level. This represents a premium of nearly 8 points from the Nifty futures' previous close, suggesting a muted opening for Monday's trading session.

Friday's Market Performance

On Friday, the Indian stock market extended its losing streak for the fifth straight session, ending sharply lower. The market performance showed significant weakness across both major indices.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Sensex displayed weak intraday momentum with a bearish tilt, facing resistance at key levels and showing signs of short-term consolidation. From a technical perspective, immediate resistance for Sensex is placed at 84,100, followed by 84,400, where supply is expected to intensify.

Nifty 50 Weekly Performance

The Nifty 50 index slipped 2.45% during the previous week and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly timeframe. The daily chart displayed a bearish candle formation, indicating sharp down-trending movement in the market. A long bear candle formation on the weekly chart signals sharp reversal after consolidation movement of recent weeks.

The underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be weak, and a slide below the support of 25,700 could open further decline down to 25,400 in the coming week. The index faced stiff resistance near the 50-DMA positioned around 25,960 levels.

Options Data and Market Sentiment

Derivative positioning continues to reflect a cautious and defensive stance. Option data for the weekly expiry shows heavy Call writing concentrated at the 26,000 strike, with nearly ₹26.65 crore in open interest, reinforcing it as strong overhead resistance. Put writing stands at approximately ₹12.90 crore, indicating limited aggressive downside conviction but selective protection near lower levels.

The India VIX surged by 16% during the week to close near the 11 mark, which continues to be a cause for concern among market participants. Momentum indicators and oscillators have generated sell crossovers on both daily and weekly timeframes, indicating underlying weakness.

Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank Nifty formed a bearish candle near the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, indicating rejection from higher levels. On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty has formed a Dark cloud cover candlestick pattern, suggesting selling pressure at higher levels. The index is expected to remain in a consolidation phase within the 58,800-60,400 range, with a decisive breakout above this range or breakdown below it providing clarity on the next directional move.

The Indian stock market faced substantial selling pressure last week, with benchmark indices recording significant declines. The Nifty 50 index ended 2.37% lower, while the BSE Sensex dropped 2,185 points. The broader market experienced even more pronounced weakness, as the Nifty Mid-cap 100 Index slipped 0.79% and the Nifty Small-cap 100 plunged 1.81%. Market breadth deteriorated sharply, with the BSE advance-decline ratio standing at 0.34, indicating widespread selling across mid and small-cap stocks.

Market Performance Analysis

Sectoral performance showed mixed trends during the period. The Defence index managed to gain 1.30%, while India Tourism, Oil & Gas, and Energy indices shed over 5%. NSE cash market turnover was lower by 2% compared to the previous session, reflecting reduced trading activity amid the market decline.

Technical Outlook and Key Levels

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, noted that market sentiment has turned nervous as the Nifty 50 index broke below the 50-DEMA support of 25,900 and approached the 20-DEMA support at 25,530. The index breached the 25,700 zone, with the next major support positioned near the 200-period MA at the 25,000 zone.

For the Bank Nifty index, Parekh observed continued weakness with the index ending near 59,250. The important near-term support is positioned at 58,700, with the next major support near the 200-period MA at 56,300.

Intraday Stock Recommendations

Parekh has identified three stocks for intraday trading based on technical chart patterns and support levels:

Tata Capital

• Entry Price: ₹355.00
• Target: ₹375.00
• Stop Loss: ₹345.00
• Rationale: The stock is in a bull trend with chart patterns suggesting the next round of upside momentum

IGL

• Entry Price: ₹186.00
• Target: ₹192.00
• Stop Loss: ₹182.00
• Rationale: The stock has formed a double bottom at ₹180.00 and appears poised for upside movement

OIL

• Entry Price: ₹420.00
• Target: ₹440.00
• Stop Loss: ₹410.00
• Rationale: The PSU stock is close to its support level at ₹410.00 with chart patterns suggesting trend reversal

Precious Metals Hit Record Highs

Gold and silver prices surged to record highs in international markets, driven by a weak US dollar and elevated geopolitical tensions. Silver rates opened with an upside gap and touched an intraday high of $83.88 per ounce, eclipsing the previous peak of $82.67 per ounce. Gold rates similarly opened with an upside gap, reaching an intraday high of $4,612.40 per ounce.

The precious metal rally was attributed to the weak US dollar following the US Justice Department's threat of potential criminal indictment against the Federal Reserve, combined with intensifying protests in Iran that elevated geopolitical tensions.