Indian equity markets concluded Friday's trading session on a positive note, with both benchmark indices registering gains despite profit booking in the final hours. However, technical analysts emphasize that chart patterns across timeframes reflect indecision and rising volatility, suggesting exhaustion of the recent corrective phase rather than a clear trend reversal.

Market Performance Overview

The trading session witnessed substantial intraday momentum before settling at modest gains. Key market movements included:

The Sensex surged as much as 752 points during the day, while the Nifty climbed 0.80% to reach its intraday peak, demonstrating strong investor appetite before profit booking emerged near the crucial 25,900 resistance level.

Technical Analysis and Critical Levels

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the Nifty attempted to sustain higher levels on Friday but selling pressure near 25,900 stymied the recovery attempt. The index remains rangebound with clear technical parameters:

Mehul Kothari from Anand Rathi emphasizes that the Nifty continues to hold firmly above the key 25,400 support, which remains a strong demand zone. "Only a decisive breakout above 25,900 can trigger a sustained upside move," Kothari noted.

Chart Pattern Analysis

Sacchitanand Uttekar, VP Research at TradeBulls Securities, highlights that the recovery from 25,430 support formed a bullish Hammer on the daily chart, while the weekly chart printed a Spinning Top, signalling indecisiveness. The analyst notes that both patterns indicate exhaustion of the corrective phase within the 25,880-25,430 band.

Trading Strategies and Recommendations

Analysts recommend cautious approaches given the rising volatility environment. Key trading strategies include:

For Nifty Breakout Above 25,900:

• Buy Nifty February futures around 26,100
• Consider Nifty 26,100 CE of February 24 expiry around ₹350-400
• Bull Call Spreads may be favorable

For Breakdown Below 25,400-25,500:

• Short Nifty February futures around 25,700
• Bear Put Spreads could present opportunities

Top Stock Recommendations

Analysts have identified several stocks with strong technical setups:

Market Outlook

The broader trend remains choppy with volatility picking up significantly. Analysts suggest that sharp moves cannot be ruled out once the current range resolves. Bank Nifty continues to remain in a 'long-only' mode, with potential to move towards the 60,600-60,850 zone as long as key supports above 59,710 remain intact.

Traders are advised to wait for directional confirmation before deploying aggressive strategies, with the 25,880-25,900 zone serving as the critical battleground for determining the market's next major move.

Indian stock markets concluded Wednesday's session marginally lower after experiencing choppy trading conditions, as investor attention turned increasingly stock-specific amid the ongoing corporate earnings season. Market participants are closely monitoring earnings results, potential developments in India-US trade relations, and anticipating cues from the upcoming Budget.

Technical Outlook and Key Levels

Technical analysts suggest the market is expected to regain momentum once it decisively crosses above the 59,800 level. Until this breakthrough occurs, the index is likely to remain range-bound within broader parameters.

The India VIX, which measures market volatility and investor fear, increased by 1.09% to settle at 11.32 levels, indicating a slight uptick in market uncertainty.

Institutional Investment Flows

Institutional trading activity showed contrasting patterns between foreign and domestic investors on Wednesday.

The significant domestic institutional buying helped offset some of the selling pressure from foreign investors, providing crucial market support during the session.

Currency and F&O Developments

The Indian rupee faced pressure during Wednesday's trading, paring its initial gains to close 11 paise lower at 90.34 against the US dollar. The currency's weakness was attributed to multiple factors including likely central bank intervention being offset by a strengthening dollar, foreign capital outflows from domestic markets, and rising crude oil prices.

In the derivatives segment, two securities entered the F&O ban period: SAIL and Sammaan Capital. These companies crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit, triggering automatic restrictions on fresh positions in their futures and options contracts.

Market Outlook

Analysts expect the markets to continue trading sideways in the near term, with investor focus remaining on the ongoing earnings season results. Key factors that could influence market direction include corporate earnings quality, any progress on India-US trade negotiations, and policy signals from the upcoming Budget announcement. The technical setup suggests a consolidation phase until the index can establish a decisive move above the 59,800 resistance level.