New Street Research analysts led by Pierre Ferragu have initiated coverage on SpaceX with a price target of $165, representing 22% upside to the expected IPO price of $135. The highly anticipated IPO is scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026, with the company set to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

The price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation totaling $2.3 trillion. This valuation implies a multiple of 45x 2030 EBIT or 15x 2030 sales, which Ferragu notes is consistent with high-growth peers such as Tesla, Palantir, Cloudflare, and Anduril.

Revenue and Earnings Projections

SpaceX is expected to generate revenue of $195.3 billion in 2030, reflecting a compounded annual growth rate of 60% from 2025 through 2030. The revenue breakdown by segment for 2030 is as follows:

Analysts estimate earnings per share will reach $3.30 in 2030.

Valuation Breakdown

The sum-of-the-parts valuation assigns specific values to different components of the business:

Bull Case Scenario

Ferragu highlighted the long-term potential of the space sector, noting the total addressable market could reach $20 trillion by 2040. If the market grows to this high-end estimate and SpaceX captures a 50% share, the fair value could rise to $330 per share. This bull case scenario offers upside of 144% based on the IPO price of $135.

"The space opportunity is large and diversified and will play out over more than a decade," Ferragu said.

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NYSE: FLY) stock is surging on Thursday, gaining roughly 6.5% as intense sector-wide enthusiasm sweeps through the space exploration market. The rally comes ahead of the highly anticipated market debut of SpaceX under the ticker symbol SPCX. Wall Street is preparing for the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO), which is expected to position the company as an industry leader with a projected valuation of approximately $1.8 trillion.

The massive valuation is casting a bright halo effect over smaller peers like Firefly Aerospace, as traders hunt for high-growth sympathy plays in the expanding space economy. The upcoming offering is drawing liquidity away from other risk assets. Solana Foundation President Lily Liu noted that capital is actively rotating out of digital assets like Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to chase these fresh equity opportunities.

"When you have a high-risk, forward-looking growth asset like that, it competes for the same capital that often flows into crypto," Liu explained, adding that "the dollars are seeking more growth, risk and yield."

SpaceX IPO Triggers Sector Rally

The SpaceX offering is expected to raise approximately $75 billion, reportedly valuing the company at 80 to 90 times earnings. Crucially for individual market participants, Liu noted that roughly 30% of the IPO allocation is expected to be directed toward retail investors, amplifying the speculative buzz across trading desks on Thursday.

Critical Price Levels To Watch For FLY Stock

At $34.70, the stock is still in "repair mode" on the intermediate trend: it's trading 19.2% below its 20-day SMA ($43.24) and 10.9% below its 50-day SMA ($39.21), which tells you the recent downtrend pressure hasn't fully cleared. At the same time, it's trading 11.3% above its 100-day SMA ($31.37) and 16.2% above its 200-day SMA ($30.06), so the longer-term floor has been holding even as the shorter-term trend cooled.

The moving-average structure is mixed but not broken: the 20-day SMA is still above the 50-day SMA (a bullish crossover), and the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA (a bullish longer-term alignment). Firefly Aerospace shares were up 3.86% at $34.71 during premarket trading on Thursday.