Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan has maintained an Outperform rating on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) and raised the price target from $190 to $250. The revised target reflects increased confidence in the company's position as the only vertically-integrated AI company with the necessary capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent. The highly anticipated IPO is scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026, with the company set to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

Analyst Projections and Valuation

Oppenheimer expects SpaceX to become the largest communications and AI company. The bank's outlook contrasts with New Street Research, which previously set a price target of $165 based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation of $2.3 trillion. New Street Research projects revenue of $195.3 billion in 2030, driven by AI, Connectivity, and Space segments. However, Oppenheimer warned of potential "extreme stock and operational volatility" and manufacturing challenges that could delay schedules.

Investor Sentiment and Retail Demand

Retail interest in the IPO has reached $70 billion, just $5 billion shy of the $75 billion target Elon Musk aims to raise. The Kobeissi Letter noted that retail demand is 2.4 times larger than the amount raised in the previous largest IPO, Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing. Despite this enthusiasm, NYU Stern Professor Aswath Damodaran stated he would avoid the IPO due to valuation concerns and the $28.5 trillion market opportunity cited in the prospectus.

Market Reactions and Governance Concerns

Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC suggested Tesla Inc. shareholders might exit positions to invest in SpaceX, though he termed the company "richly valued." Separately, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) called for delaying the IPO, warning of misleading valuation accounting and improper governance structures. The table below summarizes key analyst targets and projections.

Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund LLC, said Wednesday that SpaceX's (NASDAQ: SPCX) early trading surge may be losing its "meme stock" character now that options trading has given investors a new way to bet against the stock. The comments come as SpaceX shares fell 4.95% on Wednesday to $191.82, marking the first decline since the company's record public debut. The stock had previously surged nearly 50% from its initial public offering (IPO) price of $135, reaching a high of $201.80 on Tuesday.

Black wrote on X that he had resisted commenting on SPCX as it acted more like a meme stock than one driven by fundamentals, but that dynamic "may be ending." He noted that investors who wanted to place bearish bets were finally able to buy puts as of Tuesday. Black argued that the stock's 50% rally from its IPO price reflected a market with few ways to sell or short the shares, citing lockup limits, scarce borrowable stock, and the absence of put options until Tuesday. "While many SPCX bulls screamed ‘I told you so' when the stock was soaring, the reality was there were few outlets for selling," Black wrote.

The pullback followed Tuesday's launch of options trading, when nearly 1.8 million contracts changed hands, according to Reuters, citing Trade Alert data. This volume topped the previous first-day record of about 365,000 contracts set by Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) in 2012. SpaceX's market value fell from $2.66 trillion on Tuesday to $2.57 trillion on Wednesday. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens estimates fair value at $780 billion, less than one-third of that level.

Black said investors should revisit SpaceX's performance after lockups begin expiring in August and traders can more easily take bearish positions. Steve Grasso, CEO of Grasso Global, pushed back on fears around an accelerated lockup release. He said another 10% of eligible insider shares would become available only if SpaceX closes at or above $175.50, or 30% above its IPO price, on at least five of the 10 straight trading days before second-quarter earnings. Even then, he said, the August lockup schedule would remain, with the first unlock rising from 20% to 30%.

The comments follow Black's earlier skepticism about SpaceX's IPO valuation. Last month, he said he was "not that interested" in the offering and would be "more interested after it falls by 50%," arguing that the Elon Musk-led rocket and satellite company looked expensive near a $1.75 trillion valuation. SpaceX shares climbed 1.75% to $195.17 in after-hours trading on Wednesday.