SpaceX has finalized the majority of its IPO allocations, assigning a low 20% of the offering to retail investors. The distribution details indicate that the remaining portion of the share allotment has been secured by other investor classes, though specific breakdowns for those categories were not disclosed.

The decision to limit retail allocation to the low 20% range suggests a strategy focused on institutional or high-net-worth participation for the initial public offering. This allocation structure places significant demand pressure on the retail tranche, given the constrained supply available to individual investors.

Allocation Breakdown

The following table outlines the known distribution of the IPO shares:

The specific identity of the other investor categories and the exact total size of the offering were not detailed in the available information.

Crypto perpetual futures tied to SpaceX imply a 22% premium to the company's IPO price, suggesting a valuation near 2.2 trillion, while prediction markets assign significantly lower odds to that outcome. Perpetual futures traded around 165 on crypto venues Hyperliquid and Binance Thursday morning, according to Bloomberg. SpaceX is offering shares at a fixed $135, or about 1.8 trillion, which puts the perps at a 22% premium to the deal.

These contracts do not convert into stock at the opening bell. They instead rebase into standard real-world asset perpetuals that track the live Nasdaq price, settling in cash rather than shares. A similar perp appeared to predict the debut of Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS), which soared 68% on its first day in May.

Market Divergence

Polymarket's market on SpaceX's closing market cap tells a more cautious story. Traders price an 84% chance the stock finishes its first day above the 1.8 trillion IPO valuation. However, the odds of closing above 2.2 trillion, the level the perps imply, sit at 42%.

The table below details the probability distribution for various closing valuations on Polymarket:

Tradeable Angles

Retail investors cannot buy the perps or the contracts directly, but the listing flows through public names. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) is where much of the retail crowd will likely chase SPCX on day one. Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) is the primary US on-ramp for USDC, the stablecoin that funds and settles these perp contracts on venues like Hyperliquid.

The deal is reportedly more than four times oversubscribed, which may explain why both betting venues lean bullish even as veteran skeptics question the price.