SpaceX will launch on Nasdaq Thursday at a $1.8 trillion valuation, yet traders on Hyperliquid are pricing the company as high as $2.15 trillion in pre-IPO perpetual contracts. The $75 billion offering is already oversubscribed with more orders than shares available. SpaceX has allocated up to 30% of the deal for retail investors through Robinhood, Fidelity, Charles Schwab, SoFi, and E*Trade, which is roughly triple the usual allocation. Outside the US, Kraken and Bybit are offering tokenized SPCX exposure across more than 110 countries.

Trader Positions and Market Sentiment

Of the 4,528 traders holding open positions on Hyperliquid’s SpaceX contract, 3,865 are long and 663 are short, resulting in an 85 to 15 ratio. Despite this bullish sentiment, 78% of all position holders are currently underwater, with only 1,001 of the 4,528 traders in profit. The market has seen significant activity, with more than $450 million in notional volume traded across 917,000 trades in just three weeks.

Institutional Short Positions

The largest short positions belong to institutional names. Cumberland holds the second-largest short position at $3.1 million, with three other large shorts ranging from $2.5 million to $4.5 million. Pre-IPO perpetual volume on Hyperliquid, as measured by Hyperliquid Strategies Inc (NASDAQ: PURR), jumped from under $5 million per day to more than $50 million. This surge occurred even as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) volumes sat near multi-quarter lows on the platform.

Financial Disclosures and Bitcoin Holdings

SpaceX disclosed 18,712 Bitcoin on its balance sheet in its S-1 filing, worth roughly $1.4 billion at current prices. The company purchased the cryptocurrency at an average cost near $35,000 per coin, generating approximately $789 million in unrealized gains. Unlike Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), SpaceX has not sold any of its Bitcoin holdings.

Capital Flow Analysis

On-chain data indicates no clear sign of abnormal stablecoin outflows from crypto markets to fund SpaceX allocations. USDC and Tether flows stayed within their normal range through the recent sell-off, and Bitcoin exchange withdrawals resembled dip-buying rather than cash-raising. The clearest drain on crypto remained spot ETFs, which saw outflows of $4.4 billion over 13 sessions before a modest inflow ended the streak. Whether retail crypto holders funded SpaceX allocations will become clearer when Robinhood and Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) report June volumes next month.

SpaceX signed a $920 million monthly compute-leasing deal with Alphabet, granting access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs across its data centers through mid-2029. The agreement, finalized days before SpaceX's landmark public offering, locks in significant computing capacity for the aerospace company's AI division.

Under the terms, capacity ramps to full rate by September 2026 at a reduced fee. The contract includes an exit clause allowing Google to terminate immediately if SpaceX fails to deliver the committed GPU count by that deadline. Following 2026, either party may exit the agreement with 90 days' notice.

SpaceX's IPO prospectus reveals financial strain within its AI division, which recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion in the last quarter on revenue of $818 million. During the same period, the company reported total capital expenditures of $10.1 billion, with $7.7 billion specifically allocated to AI infrastructure.

Financial Performance and Projections

SpaceX is targeting a valuation north of $1.75 trillion for its imminent listing. Co-lead underwriter Morgan Stanley projects revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with the AI division contributing up to $190 billion by 2030. However, NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran values SpaceX closer to $1.3 trillion, criticizing the AI market size projections as unrealistic.

Competitive Landscape and Strategic Moves

SpaceX has also entered a separate compute capacity deal with Anthropic at its Colossus 1 facility in Memphis. By entering the infrastructure leasing market, SpaceX competes directly with neocloud providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius. Shares of these competitors fell sharply during a broader tech selloff but partially recovered following the announcement.

The terrestrial compute deal coincides with reports that Google and SpaceX are in separate talks to develop orbital data centers. Google reportedly plans prototype satellite launches by 2027 under its Project Suncatcher initiative. Additionally, SpaceX has reportedly barred Hong Kong and mainland China investors from its IPO, citing U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations. Full exercise of the underwriters' overallotment option could add approximately $11.25 billion to the offering.