Former Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler warned Tuesday that a “great rebalancing” could unfold in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares as lockup restrictions begin to expire, allowing early investors to take profits following the company's blockbuster public debut. Gensler told Bloomberg Television that many pre-IPO backers are likely to “take risk off the page” as the lockup shares become eligible for sale, potentially reducing their exposure by a third, half, or even three-quarters. He cautioned that the resulting selling pressure might not be limited to SpaceX, suggesting that venture capitalists and sovereign wealth funds selling shares could create downward pressure across the entire market.

SpaceX is preparing for a series of share unlocks that will gradually increase the stock's public float over the next 14 months. According to the lockup schedule, only about 5% of outstanding shares are currently available for trading. The free float is projected to rise steadily through the second half of 2026, increasing from 11.8% in August to 25.1% by late October. This expansion is anticipated to accelerate, reaching 40% by December and 50.8% by June 2027.

Musk Unlock Draws Attention

The most significant event on the horizon is scheduled for June 12, 2027, when Elon Musk's 46.1% stake becomes eligible for sale. The chart estimates the free float could jump from roughly 50.8% to 96.9% in a single day, with the remaining shares becoming eligible by September 2027. While eligibility does not guarantee that insiders will sell, the sheer scale of the potential unlock represents one of the largest unlock events for a mega-cap stock.

Historical Context of Lockup Expirations

The prospect of a large unlock is not unique to SpaceX. Other technology giants have faced similar dynamics during their early public years. In each instance, the anticipation of new supply became a focal point for investors, often driving market sentiment as much as actual selling activity.

Market Performance and Valuation

SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq on June 12 at $135 per share and surged nearly 19% in its first trading session. The stock has since cooled from its highs, shedding more than $400 billion in market value on Monday. SpaceX's valuation stands at roughly $2.03 trillion, down from a peak of $2.9 trillion reached on June 16. SPCX closed 0.98% higher on Tuesday at $156.11, after declining 16.43% on Monday. Gensler added that potential listings from Anthropic and OpenAI could further test investors’ appetite for AI-related equities as more private-market winners seek access to public capital.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. raised $85 billion in its initial public offering earlier this month, creating a significant capital pool likely to flow through a sprawling ecosystem of suppliers. As the company expands its launch business, scales Starlink's satellite network, and builds artificial intelligence infrastructure through sister company xAI, the IPO proceeds are expected to benefit a wide range of sectors including semiconductors, networking equipment, aerospace materials, power systems, and data center infrastructure. While Nvidia Corp. is often cited as a primary beneficiary, numerous other companies are positioned to gain from the next phase of spending.

The xAI Buildout Could Boost AI Infrastructure Suppliers

The largest spending commitments may ultimately come from xAI and its rapidly growing AI infrastructure footprint. Training advanced AI models requires massive amounts of computing power, networking equipment, cooling systems, and electricity. This demand could benefit companies such as Dell Technologies Inc., Super Micro Computer Inc., and Arista Networks Inc., all of which play key roles in building AI clusters.

AI infrastructure extends well beyond servers. As data centers become larger and more power-intensive, companies focused on energy and cooling systems could also see gains. Vertiv Holdings Co. and GE Vernova Inc. have emerged as critical suppliers to the AI boom, while Caterpillar Inc. provides backup power solutions frequently used in large-scale data center deployments. Tesla Inc. and Bloom Energy Corp. could also find themselves linked to the expansion through energy storage, distributed power systems, and electricity infrastructure.

Starlink Expansion Could Create Another Set Of Winners

While AI attracts most of the headlines, Starlink remains one of SpaceX's most capital-intensive growth engines. The satellite internet business requires a steady supply of electronic components, communications equipment, and advanced manufacturing inputs. Companies such as STMicroelectronics N.V., Flex Ltd., TE Connectivity Plc, Amphenol Corp., and Texas Instruments Inc. operate in areas that support aerospace electronics and communications systems. As SpaceX continues launching satellites and expanding Starlink's global footprint, demand for components throughout the supply chain could rise alongside it.

Rocket Manufacturing Has Its Own Supply Chain

Building rockets requires far more than chips and servers. Aerospace materials suppliers including Hexcel Corp., ATI Inc., Constellium SE, and CPS Technologies Corp. provide advanced materials used in demanding aerospace applications. These companies typically receive far less investor attention than software or semiconductor names, but they occupy critical positions within the aerospace manufacturing ecosystem. Engineering and design firms may also see increased activity as SpaceX continues expanding launch facilities, manufacturing capacity, and infrastructure projects. AECOM, for example, operates in areas that could benefit from large-scale construction and engineering spending.

The Bigger Story

For years, investors have treated SpaceX primarily as a standalone company. The IPO changes that dynamic. Just as Nvidia's rise created opportunities across the broader AI supply chain, SpaceX's public-market debut could shine a spotlight on a much larger ecosystem of companies helping build rockets, satellites, AI clusters, and energy infrastructure. The company's $85 billion raise is now one of the largest pools of growth capital in the market. While Nvidia may capture much of the attention, investors looking for second-order beneficiaries may find opportunities throughout the SpaceX and xAI supply chains.