RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert has reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX, maintaining a price target of $225 for the aerospace and defense manufacturer. This reaffirmation signals continued confidence in the company’s valuation and growth trajectory despite its private status.

Analyst Action

The rating update comes from Ken Herbert at RBC Capital. He retained the Outperform stance, which typically suggests that the equity is expected to outperform the broader market or relevant sector benchmarks over the next 12 months. The maintained price target of $225 reflects the firm’s current assessment of SpaceX’s intrinsic value.

Valuation Metrics

Market Context

SpaceX remains one of the most valuable private companies globally, driven by its dominance in commercial launch services and its Starlink satellite internet constellation. While the company does not trade on public exchanges like NASDAQ, analyst coverage from firms such as RBC Capital provides market participants with structured valuation benchmarks. The retention of the Outperform rating indicates that RBC sees no material deterioration in the company’s fundamentals or competitive positioning.

What the Numbers Show

The stability of the $225 price target suggests that RBC Capital views SpaceX’s near-term revenue drivers and cost structures as aligned with previous expectations. In the absence of new negative catalysts or significant shifts in the regulatory landscape for spaceflight, the firm’s consistent outlook reinforces the narrative of sustained demand for both government contracts and commercial satellite deployments.

Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) reported first-quarter revenue of $4.6 billion, up from $4.06 billion in Q1’25, but its net loss widened significantly to $4.2 billion compared to a $528 million loss in the prior year period. The aerospace and technology firm’s earnings reveal a capital-intensive expansion phase, driven by billions in investments toward its data center business and semiconductor projects, including the Terafab project in Texas undertaken jointly with Tesla.

The financial results come as the stock trades just above its record low of $106.97, down more than 52% from its post-IPO peak. Analysts had projected Q1 revenue between $6.8 billion and $8 billion, indicating the company missed consensus estimates. For the full year, consensus estimates project revenue of $39.1 billion, rising to $73.1 billion next year. Growth is largely underpinned by expanding data center contracts, with Anthropic paying $1.25 billion per month under a $45 billion deal, Reflection AI contributing $125 million monthly, and Alphabet set to add over $900 million per month.

Lock-Up Expirations and Supply Dynamics

Market volatility is further influenced by a staggered insider lock-up structure. Unlike traditional IPOs with a single cliff unlock, SpaceX adopted a tiered approach. The first significant release is expected around August 6, two trading days after the August 4 earnings report, when up to 911.5 million shares—approximately 20% of the early-release eligible pool—could become eligible for sale. This represents the initial portion of an estimated 4.6 billion shares in the primary 180-day lock-up pool held by employees and pre-IPO investors.

Additional 7% tranches are scheduled to unlock roughly every few weeks through late October, followed by a larger release after third-quarter earnings. The remainder of the 4.6 billion-share pool is expected to become eligible when the primary 180-day lock-up expires around December 8–9, 2026. By then, the publicly tradable float could increase from roughly 4–5% at IPO to approximately 40% of the company. Elon Musk’s 6.4 billion-share stake, representing more than 40% of the company, remains locked until approximately June 2027 under a separate 366-day agreement.

Options Market and Volatility

The options market is pricing in substantial volatility, with implied volatility at 163% for options expiring on Friday. This reflects uncertainty around the business outlook and the upcoming employee lockup expiry. The market anticipates a 14-15% move in either direction. Despite high volatility, sentiment shows some bullish indicators; the put/call ratio sits at 0.50, suggesting investors lean towards upside potential. Over 219.3 million shares are currently shorted, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze if the stock rallies.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between revenue growth and profitability highlights the capital-intensive nature of SpaceX’s expansion. While revenue increased by approximately 13% year-over-year, the net loss surged by nearly seven times. This suggests that operational expenses and capital expenditures, particularly in AI infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing, are outpacing revenue generation in the near term. The reliance on large-scale contracts with Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI indicates a strategic pivot toward high-margin data services, but the immediate financial impact remains negative.