SpaceX’s Starlink routers have secured a conditional exemption from Federal Communications Commission (FCC) restrictions on foreign-made consumer hardware, allowing the company to continue seeking approval for new devices through Feb. 1, 2028. The exemption is critical for SpaceX, as its routers are manufactured in Vietnam, which would otherwise place them under the FCC’s Covered List of banned equipment deemed to pose unacceptable national security risks.

Conditional Approval Details

The FCC’s Covered List now identifies Starlink routers as conditionally approved by the Department of War. This designation permits SpaceX to bypass the general prohibition that blocks new covered models from receiving FCC equipment authorization before entering the U.S. market. The rule does not prevent consumers from using existing routers or retailers from selling previously approved models.

Manufacturers can avoid the restriction if the Department of War or Department of Homeland Security determines their products do not present unacceptable risks. Netgear Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. have previously secured approvals for their Nighthawk, Orbi, Eero, and Amazon Leo routers. TP-Link had not appeared on the FCC’s exemption list as of Monday.

Regulatory Context

The FCC added foreign-produced consumer routers to the Covered List in March after national security agencies concluded they posed "unacceptable risks." The agency cited potential supply-chain vulnerabilities and the threat of cyberattacks against U.S. households and critical infrastructure. FCC Chair Brendan Carr stated in a March press release that the FCC would continue ensuring U.S. cyberspace, critical infrastructure, and supply chains are safe and secure under President Trump’s leadership.

Recent Regulatory Wins

This decision extends SpaceX’s recent regulatory momentum. In January, the FCC authorized another 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, expanding the approved Gen2 network to 15,000 spacecraft to support gigabit internet and direct-to-cell services. The agency also modernized satellite spectrum-sharing rules, a change SpaceX requested that could unlock up to seven times more broadband capacity and more than $2 billion in economic benefits. Additionally, SpaceX and T-Mobile US Inc. won the FCC’s first commercial authorization for a satellite operator and wireless carrier to provide supplemental coverage from space.

Market Reaction

Despite the regulatory win, SPCX stock traded 3.17% lower at $109.91 in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Benzinga Edge Rankings indicate that SpaceX Stock performs poorly on Short, Medium, and Long Price Trends.

NYU professor Scott Galloway dismissed Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) as unrealistic, suggesting the analyst behind the call is in the wrong profession. Speaking on the Prof G Markets podcast, Galloway remarked that the valuation logic resembles a romantic comedy rather than financial analysis. This critique arrives as SpaceX shares trade near $113, approximately 16% below their $135 IPO price and nearly 50% off an intraday high of $225.64.

The $300 target originates from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, whose model projects revenue growth from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $319 billion by 2030. According to reports, more than half of this valuation relies on AI-driven data center ambitions and compute contracts with clients such as Anthropic and Google, rather than traditional rocket launches. Other Wall Street firms have issued varying targets: Goldman Sachs maintains a $205 target, while Raymond James analyst Brian Sigual holds a Street-high estimate of $800. Galloway’s co-host, Ed Elson, criticized Sigual’s view, noting it implies a $10.4 trillion market capitalization.

WeWork Parallels and Underwriter Conflicts

Galloway drew parallels between the current sentiment surrounding SpaceX and WeWork’s failed 2019 IPO. He recalled how underwriters at that time signed off on a prospectus using "community adjusted EBITDA," a metric that excluded real estate costs. Galloway labeled this approach "EBITDA before everything else" and warned against trusting institutions that fail to scrutinize such metrics. He highlighted a potential conflict of interest, noting that SpaceX’s reported IPO underwriters—including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup—all maintain buy ratings on the stock.

Prediction Markets and Upcoming Catalysts

Prediction markets reflect skepticism regarding a near-term rebound. Polymarket traders assign only a 21% probability of SpaceX closing July above $120 and just 2% odds of finishing above $140. The most likely outcome, priced at 60%, is a close above $110. Additionally, a separate contract offers 16% odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by December 31, with nearly $880,000 in trading volume.

SpaceX is scheduled to report its first public earnings on August 4. A lockup tranche of roughly 911 million shares is set to unlock two trading days later, on August 6. Analyst Adam Jonas has noted that many investors expect the stock to trade toward $100 as these lockups expire. Galloway also criticized Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), calling it a "meme stock" after its shares fell roughly 15% in a week.