Home Depot Inc (NYSE: HD) will release its second quarter 2026 earnings report before the opening bell on Tuesday, Aug. 18. The announcement comes as Chair, President and CEO Ted Decker continues a temporary medical leave of absence, with Senior Executive Vice President Ann-Marie Campbell overseeing day-to-day operations and CFO Richard McPhail managing financial matters. Investors are looking for signs that the home improvement downturn is finally bottoming, with comparable sales growth being the critical metric to watch.

Shares of Home Depot fell 0.8% to close at $338.86 on Friday. The stock’s recent decline follows the leadership transition news, with shares previously trading at $346.42 when the leave was first announced. Over the past year, the stock has fallen 12.60%. The shares sit about 21% below the 52-week high of $426.75 and have pulled back 2.0% year-to-date in 2026. RBC Capital warned that shares already appear to price in a fairly rapid housing recovery, lifting its target to $343, just above Friday’s close.

Earnings Preview

Analysts expect the company to report quarterly earnings of $4.73 per share, up from $4.68 in the year-ago period. The consensus estimate for Home Depot’s quarterly revenue is $47.34 billion, compared to $45.28 billion reported last year. Polymarket gives a 77% chance that the company beats earnings. The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 times.

Home Depot has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in three straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall. The company has also beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in two straight quarters and in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.

Prediction Market Insights

Beyond traditional estimates, prediction markets offer insight into expected commentary. On Kalshi, traders are betting on which words executives will mention:

• Tariffs and Mexico: Top the board at 89%. Home Depot has run stores in Mexico for more than two decades and stated last quarter that tariffs, fuel, and commodity costs were putting pressure on the business.
• Innovation: Trades at 84%. This follows the expansion of its Google Cloud partnership and the upgrade of its “Magic Apron” assistant using Gemini models from Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL).
• Weather and Storms: Trade at 84% and 75%, respectively. Management previously blamed a lack of storms for much of last year’s third-quarter shortfall.
• Lumber: Trades at 62%.
• Inflation and Headwinds: Trade at 58% and 50%, respectively. Traders are split on whether cautious vocabulary persists.

Conversely, terms like “Tailwind” (39%), “Competition” (32%), and “E-Commerce” (15%) are priced as unlikely to be mentioned.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Analyst consensus remains a Buy rating. Recent actions from analysts identified as having high accuracy rates include:

• Wells Fargo: Zachary Fadem (78% accuracy) maintained an Overweight rating and boosted the price target from $360 to $400 on Aug. 11, 2026.
• RBC Capital: Steven Shemesh (60% accuracy) maintained a Sector Perform rating and raised the price target from $340 to $343 on Aug. 12, 2026.
• DA Davidson: Michael Baker (74% accuracy) maintained a Buy rating and a price target of $377 on July 27, 2026.
• Guggenheim: Steven Forbes (59% accuracy) maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $425 on July 20, 2026.
• Piper Sandler: Peter Keith (69% accuracy) maintained an Overweight rating and cut the price target from $421 to $378 on May 20, 2026.
• Stifel: Maintained Hold rating, raised price target from $320 to $340.

Technical Analysis and Options

Home Depot shares are trading 1.5% above its 20-day SMA of $341.14 and 0.4% below its 200-day SMA of $347.57. The RSI stands at 53.27, signaling neutral momentum. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA following a December 2025 death cross, indicating bearish sentiment. The stock is trading 2.6% below the 200-day moving average.

• Key Resistance: $354.00 — a nearby level where rebounds can stall.
• Key Support: $331.00 — a nearby level where buyers previously stepped in.

Options price a post-earnings move of about 4.34%, versus the stock’s 3.0% average over the last four reports. This implied move represents approximately $14.6 billion of market value at stake given Home Depot’s $337 billion market cap, according to Benzinga Pro data. While this is the smallest implied swing among a nine-stock watchlist of major earnings reporters, the absolute dollar value underscores the significant stakes involved for investors.

Dividend Yield Mechanics

Investors may focus on the company’s dividend yield ahead of the report. Home Depot currently offers an annual dividend yield of 2.70%, translating to a quarterly dividend of $2.33 per share ($9.32 annually).

To generate specific monthly income streams from these dividends, investors would need to hold the following share counts:

The calculation divides the desired annual income by the annual dividend payment ($9.32). For example, $6,000 divided by $9.32 equals approximately 644 shares.

ETF Holdings

Home Depot carries significant weight in major consumer discretionary and high-dividend ETFs, meaning inflows or outflows from these funds can impact stock price action.

• State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLY): 5.76% Weight
• Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE: VCR): 5.13% Weight
• iShares Core High Dividend ETF (NYSE: HDV): 4.88% Weight

Competitive Landscape and Traffic Data

The earnings report comes one day ahead of rival Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW), which will report on Wednesday before market open. Lowe’s has been stronger recently on the earnings-per-share front, with more than 10 straight quarters beating analyst estimates. Revenue has been similar for both, with Lowe’s also beating analyst estimates for revenue in seven of the last 10 quarters overall. Home Depot has the longer revenue beat streak at three, while Lowe’s comes in at two quarters.

A Placer.ai report tracking visits to both retailers shows Lowe’s with a 0.4% year-over-year gain in the second quarter, while Home Depot visits were down 0.3% year-over-year. For Home Depot, visits were up year-over-year in both April and June, but declined in May. Visits play a vital role in Home Depot’s revenue, but the size of purchases and their dollar value matter more, given the many large-ticket items sold.

In the first quarter, the company said consumers were delaying spending on larger home-improvement projects due to the housing market and geopolitical tensions. Investors and analysts will be looking for commentary on whether this has improved in the second quarter.

Strategic Focus and Leadership

Home Depot recently announced plans to accelerate its position in the home improvement market through consolidation of key functions across various segments. One of the biggest focuses is on the Professional segment, which is estimated to be worth $700 billion. Investors and analysts may hear more about these renewed focuses, which could translate into additional market share gains and higher revenue.

Another item to watch on the earnings call could be commentary on CEO Ted Decker. The company recently announced that he would be taking a temporary medical leave of absence for a couple of months. The company has already named the people who will shift duties to cover Decker, but analysts could look to question what this time period could look like for the company.

The full-year outlook and guidance will be key for the company and its stock reaction, with two more quarters to go. The company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance after the first quarter. A double beat in the second quarter could see investors and analysts wanting guidance raised to show more optimism in the second half of the year.

What the Numbers Show

The leadership transition coincides with a period of technical weakness, as the stock trades below its 200-day moving average following a death cross in December 2025. Despite the bearish technical setup, analyst sentiment remains positive with a Buy consensus and diverse price targets ranging from $343 to $425. The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining whether the interim management structure can maintain investor confidence amidst broader sector declines. A stronger-than-expected comp print, paired with signs that customers are returning to bigger projects, may matter more than an earnings beat. Flat comps and more deferral language would leave investors waiting even longer for a housing recovery. The divergence between rising revenue estimates and declining foot traffic suggests that average transaction values may be sustaining top-line growth despite weaker visitation trends. With options pricing a $14.6 billion swing, the market is positioning for a decisive reaction to any guidance changes or commentary on the durability of consumer spending.

Lone Pine Capital has reported a shareholding of 2.6 million shares in Home Depot, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The disclosure highlights the hedge fund's exposure to the home improvement retailer.

The filing provides a snapshot of Lone Pine's equity position but does not include additional details regarding the acquisition date, average purchase price, or total monetary value of the stake. Such disclosures are standard regulatory requirements for institutional investors holding significant positions in publicly traded companies.

What the Numbers Show

The data point of 2.6 million shares represents a static disclosure of ownership quantity. Without comparative prior-period holdings or market price data within the source, the directional change or financial weight of this position cannot be derived from the filing alone.