Trump stated that a large number of boats passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night. The remark highlights activity in one of the world's most strategically significant maritime passages, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.

Trump's statement on Hormuz activity

Trump's remarks were limited to noting the volume of maritime traffic through the strait. No further details regarding the nature, origin, or destination of the vessels were provided in the source statement.

The US is gaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway, while Iran's influence over the region is diminishing, according to analysts. The US Navy has been patrolling the strait, resulting in more than 80% of liquid transits over the past fortnight taking the Omani route. This UN-authorized shipping channel is opposed by Iran, which has attacked several vessels attempting to traverse the waterway via the north coast of Oman.

Despite the risks, most ships have chosen to ignore Iran's demands, crossing the strait under the protection of US naval forces. "It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait," Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN. Notably, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are using VLCCs to move oil through the Strait of Hormuz before transferring it to customer tankers outside the danger zone. To avoid Iranian attacks, some tankers have switched off transponders for weeks, creating "dark traffic" that can evade traditional tracking systems.

Shipping traffic through the Omani route has surged from almost nothing a month ago, while reduced traffic on Iran's preferred route has weakened its ability to collect toll revenue from ships passing through the strait. "Iran's request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don't want to do and haven't been doing," said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners. Pickering said that Iran's aim appears to be "deterrence" rather than control, suggesting "they were never completely in control to start with" but still retain the ability to deter.

Hormuz Talks Remain Uncertain as Crude Soars

The remarks from the analyst come on the heels of Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlighting a significant increase in the average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. The increase was attributed to the coordinated efforts of the US military and Gulf allies, with the seven-day average rising to nearly 9 million barrels per day. The newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities are moving 5–7 million barrels of oil per day out of the region, bringing total oil flows out of the region to about 15 million barrels per day.

While President Donald Trump claimed the US has "total control" of the Strait of Hormuz, continued Iranian attacks and depressed oil flows suggest neither the US nor Iran has full control over the strategic waterway yet, as per analysts. A 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding expired Monday without a broader peace deal. The agreement was intended to halt military operations and open negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and US sanctions.

Meanwhile, Oman and Iran are negotiating to restore freedom of navigation through the strait without US involvement, a development that could complicate the situation and displease Trump. Notably, the President also threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of his administration's talks with Iran, reported Fox News. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures were trading 0.99% higher at $91.92 per barrel, while WTI crude futures were trading 1.08% higher at $84.97 per barrel.