A new NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence study reveals that Russia's propaganda architecture has a predictable vulnerability during the first 18 hours of an unexpected crisis.

The research, commissioned by Repsense and conducted with political science researchers, analyzed approximately 3.13 million media and social network items over 15 months. The data covers the period from January 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025.

The 3C Model

Researchers identified a consistent three-phase sequence they term the 3C model: Crisis, Control, and Crusade.

• Crisis: Competing versions of events circulate without state guidance.
• Control: A single Kremlin-approved version emerges and is repeated simultaneously across state websites, television, and Telegram.
• Crusade: The event is reframed as part of a larger ideological struggle with the West.

What the Numbers Show

The analysis highlights a structural lag between event occurrence and state narrative control. While the Kremlin takes an average of 18 hours to agree on an official position, the information space remains ownerless during this window. This divergence suggests that speed of response is more critical than completeness for external actors attempting to counter disinformation.

Case Study: Kursk Region

The August 6, 2024 incursion by Ukrainian forces into Russia's Kursk region demonstrated this pattern clearly. For seven hours, Russian state media remained silent. During this gap, Telegram channels and military bloggers provided competing explanations. Once the coordinated position emerged after 18 hours, it was uniformly broadcast across all state platforms.

Primary Audience

The study concludes that the primary audience for this propaganda system is Russia's own population. The goal is mobilizing citizens rather than persuading foreign audiences. Interventions and fact-based explanations remain possible until the transition from chaos to control is complete.

Russia has secretly helped Iran develop supersonic cruise missile technology through a covert programme that began in 2023, according to the Financial Times.

Covert programme and technical assistance

The initiative, codenamed C430L, enlisted leading Russian missile specialists to assist Iran in developing ramjet propulsion technology. This technology enables missiles to sustain speeds several times faster than sound. Russia’s state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and missile developer NPO Mashinostroyenia arranged the programme.

Russian engineers made several trips to Iran before a contract was signed with Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics in November 2023. In April 2025, Rosoboronexport proposed sending around two dozen specialists to Iran for technical consultations under C430L. The planned mission focused on analyzing Iran’s propulsion system, with Moscow requesting flight-test telemetry data from Tehran prior to the visit.

Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iranian missiles, described the arrangement as the transfer of highly strategically sensitive military technology that Iran has sought for decades.

Strategic implications

The technology being developed could pose a threat to US warships and other targets. Jim Lamson, a former CIA Iran military analyst at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, stated that this would provide Iran with a qualitatively new strategic weapon system capable of threatening US Navy vessels.

Iran has developed and flight-tested a ramjet propulsion system, but there is currently no evidence that a Russian-assisted supersonic cruise missile has been deployed.

Broader military cooperation context

This revelation follows reports of Russia transferring upgraded Shahed-type drones to Iran in March, incorporating battlefield-tested improvements from the Ukraine war. In July, reports emerged of US investigations into whether Russia helped Iran target CIA facilities using advanced drone technology with Kometa-M navigation systems.

President Donald Trump downplayed these reports, stating any Russian assistance had little impact and expressing doubt that Moscow was sharing intelligence with Tehran at a high level. Trump also thanked Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin for remaining neutral during the conflict with Iran.