Greater Victoria population growth slows to multi-year low
Greater Victoria's population growth slowed to 0.7% in 2025, the lowest since 2011, due to a sharp decline in international migration and eased interprovincial and intraprovincial inflows. The housing market saw reduced activity and stable home prices, while rents rose significantly, particularly for larger units. Efforts to increase high-density housing supply are seen as key to improving affordability over time.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Greater Victoria's population growth decelerated to a multi-year low in 2025, adding 3,129 new residents to reach a total of 445,090 people. The region recorded its smallest population increase since 2011, with growth slowing to 0.7% as all sources of migration eased. This trend highlights significant challenges in attracting new residents amid housing affordability concerns and shifting federal immigration policies.
Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, international migration contributed 1,127 people, representing an 83.6% decline year-over-year. Interprovincial migration added 1,414 people, while intraprovincial migration contributed 1,772 people, both at a slower pace than the previous year. Natural growth, defined as births minus deaths, reduced the population by 1,184 people.
Housing Market Trends
The housing market in Greater Victoria experienced a slowdown in activity during the first half of 2026. Year-to-date sales totaled 3,302 as of June 2026, marking a 7.1% decrease compared to the first six months of 2025. Benchmark prices for single-family homes remained stable at $1.16 million in June 2026, while apartment benchmark prices fell 1.5% year-over-year to $541,300.
Rental Market Dynamics
Rental costs continued to rise, with the average monthly rent for an apartment reaching $1,805 in October 2025, up 7.0% year-over-year. The increase was most pronounced for units with three or more bedrooms, which saw a 20.8% surge. Rents for one- and two-bedroom units increased by 6.3% and 6.4%, respectively. The vacancy rate across all room types rose 0.7 percentage points to 3.3%.
| Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Population Growth (2025) | 0.7% | Slowest since 2011 |
| International Migration | 1,127 | -83.6% YoY |
| Interprovincial Migration | 1,414 | Slower pace |
| Intraprovincial Migration | 1,772 | Slower pace |
| Natural Growth | -1,184 | Decline |
| Single-Family Home Price (June 2026) | $1.16 million | Little changed |
| Apartment Price (June 2026) | $541,300 | -1.5% YoY |
| Year-to-Date Sales (H1 2026) | 3,302 | -7.1% YoY |
| Average Apartment Rent (Oct 2025) | $1,805 | +7.0% YoY |
| Vacancy Rate | 3.3% | +0.7 pp |
Simon Philp, FCPA, FCMA, Market Vice President at CIBC, attributed the decline in international arrivals to federal immigration policy and noted that housing affordability remains a barrier for attracting residents from other parts of British Columbia and Canada. Despite these challenges, Philp emphasized that expanding high-density housing supply is crucial for long-term affordability improvements.
How will the sharp decline in international migration impact the local labor market and wage growth in the coming year?
Will the rising vacancy rate and falling apartment prices eventually reverse the trend of increasing rental costs?
What specific municipal zoning changes are planned to accelerate the delivery of high-density housing supply?
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