Iran's Ghalibaf has characterised a recent agreement as "the greatest absolute defeat for the United States and the Zionist regime," asserting it represents a significant win on the diplomatic battlefield. The statement frames the outcome as a source of national pride and a strategic success for Iran.

Diplomatic Assessment

Ghalibaf clarified that while Iran did not destroy the US military, it achieved a comprehensive political and military victory by preventing the achievement of specific goals. He stated that the United States and Israel attacked Iran with nine specific, declared objectives but failed to achieve any of them at any level.

Key Claims

• Described the agreement as a "source of pride" and a victory in the diplomatic sphere.
• Asserted that the US and Israel failed to meet any of their nine declared objectives.
• Characterised the result as a win both militarily and politically for Iran.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, accused the United States of repeated intelligence failures regarding its handling of the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi stated that Washington has long miscalculated due to these failures, citing the war on Iran as a primary example and warning of an even larger miscalculation concerning the waterway.

In a post on X, Araghchi asserted that fake intelligence is more harmful than fake news. He emphasized trust in divine power over earthly authority, stating, "Allah is Great, Greater than ANY power on Earth."

US Maintains Blockade and Sanctions

The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of escalating tensions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed during a trip to Panama that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports can be maintained indefinitely. Hegseth noted that the US will continue to rotate ships in and out to sustain the operation.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced this stance in an interview on Newsmax’s "Rob Schmitt Tonight." He stated that the US will impose economic isolation on Iran that has "never been seen," with additional measures expected next week.

President Donald Trump claimed the US has total control over the Strait. This assertion was contested by Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), which insisted the waterway remains blocked.

Oil Market Reaction

Brent crude oil futures traded 1.60% higher at $88.45 per barrel. WTI crude futures rose 1.88% to $82.80 per barrel.

Supply Shock Risks

Rick Rule, a natural-resource investor, argued that a ceasefire could ease prices short-term but cannot solve deeper supply problems. He warned of a potential oil shortage in 2029–30 driven by underinvestment. Rule stated the global oil and gas industry has underinvested more than $1 billion a day in sustaining capital.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil supply to drop by 4.3 million barrels per day, or about 4%, this year. The IEA attributed this decline to renewed Middle East hostilities disrupting production and shipping.