Americans now trust the Democratic Party slightly more than the Republican Party to manage the economy, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos survey. The poll reveals that 37% of registered voters believe Democrats have a better economic strategy, surpassing the 36% who favor Republicans. This shift ends nearly a decade of Republican advantage in this metric, which persisted through most of Donald Trump’s first term, Joe Biden’s tenure, and into Trump’s second term.

The survey also captured a dip in President Donald Trump’s approval rating, which fell to 35%, down from 37% in a similar poll conducted last month. This decline coincides with rising energy prices fueled by ongoing conflict with Iran. U.S. gasoline prices crossed $4 a gallon in July, with experts warning that prices could remain above $4 per gallon beyond the first week of August.

Political Fallout and Market Odds

Despite growing dissatisfaction with the administration, Polygon-based Polymarket prices a 56% chance that Republicans will retain their Senate majority after the midterms. Conversely, Democrats are the frontrunners to take control of the House, with 86% odds in their favor. Overall, the balance of power tilts slightly toward Democrats, with a 48% chance that they sweep both chambers of Congress.

Broader Trends

The shift in public opinion reflects a broader trend rather than a one-off fluctuation. A July AP-NORC poll recorded 33% approval and 66% disapproval for Trump’s handling of the presidency. Furthermore, approval of Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict fell to 28%. Independents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll favored Democrats over Republicans by 12 percentage points, highlighting a significant swing among undecided or non-aligned voters.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between polling data on economic management and market odds for congressional control suggests a complex political landscape. While Democrats have gained a slight edge in perceived economic competence, the structural advantages or incumbency factors may still favor Republicans in the Senate, as indicated by Polymarket’s pricing. This disconnect highlights the nuanced nature of voter sentiment versus electoral outcomes.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) accused Senate Republicans of securing tax audit immunity for President Donald Trump and his family, valuing the protection at potentially $100 million. The allegation emerged after Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche rescinded a $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization" fund to clear the path for his confirmation as attorney general.

Warren stated on X that Republicans were "caving on a deal" that preserves these audit shields while eliminating the broader compensation fund. The Justice Department clarified that the tax-audit provision applies only retroactively to matters open when the agreement took effect and does not extend to future filings. This distinction remains a point of contention despite the fund's termination.

Fund Termination and Confirmation

Blanche formally terminated the $1.776 billion fund on Sunday following "good faith discussions" with Republican senators John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). The move removes the primary barrier to his confirmation ahead of Tuesday’s Senate Judiciary Committee vote. Blanche’s order confirmed that no board members were appointed, no money was transferred, and no claims process was created.

The fund originated from a settlement of Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service regarding the disclosure of his tax records. It had faced bipartisan scrutiny due to potential compensation for individuals claiming politically motivated prosecution, including those convicted in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.

Key Developments

What the Numbers Show

The financial core of this dispute involves two distinct figures: the rescinded $1.776 billion compensation fund and the retained tax audit protections valued by Warren at $100 million. While the larger sum was eliminated to secure political consensus for Blanche’s nomination, the smaller but specific audit shield remains intact. This divergence suggests that while the broad "anti-weaponization" framework was rejected, targeted legal protections for the President’s family were preserved through negotiation. The outcome determines whether Blanche assumes the permanent role or remains acting while legislative battles over these provisions continue.