Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are rallying as negative inflation readings and falling oil prices reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, reversing a trend that punished these assets for most of 2026. The Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast shows headline consumer prices at minus 0.06% for June and minus 0.22% for July, marking a sharp disinflationary shift. WTI crude has slumped to around $68 a barrel, returning to late-February levels before the war in Iran disrupted supply.

The decline in energy prices follows the mid-June agreement between the United States and Iran to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Gulf supply to flood back into the market. Saudi Aramco cut the official price of its flagship Arab Light grade to Asia for August by $11 a barrel, swinging it from a $9.50 premium to a $1.50 discount over the regional benchmark. This reduction was the deepest in at least 26 years, surpassing analyst expectations for an $8 cut.

Economic Data Shifts Rate Expectations

Despite a still-expanding U.S. economy running at around 2% growth, recent labor market data has softened the hawkish case for monetary policy. The U.S. economy added just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, missing the roughly 110,000 estimate, with prior months revised lower. In response, traders reduced the odds of a September rate hike from around 66% to near 53%, and the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.13%.

Asset Correlation and Market Mechanics

The rebound in non-yielding assets is driven by an unwinding of Fed-hike positioning. Jordi Visser, a strategist at 22V Research, noted that if the Fed-hike positioning unwinds, it benefits gold, silver, and Bitcoin. When the market prices in high rates, the opportunity cost of holding these assets rises, making Treasurys more appealing. Conversely, a dovish repricing reverses that calculation. Gold and Bitcoin are currently moving in lockstep, with a 60-day correlation of 0.92, indicating they are trading as a single macro expression of the same rate view.

Risks to the Rally

The sustainability of the relief rally depends on whether the disinflation is real and durable. The current drop is almost entirely driven by energy, while core inflation remains firm. The Fed’s preferred core PCE gauge stands at 3.4%, and average hourly earnings are still running around 3.5% year-over-year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation expectations have come down in recent weeks, but the central bank remains focused on inflation data. The June CPI report, due July 14, will be a decisive data point for future policy direction.

NRSInsights reported that same-store sales for June 2026 increased 3.4% year-over-year, supported by a 1.3% rise in the average price paid for the top 500 items. The data, derived from the National Retail Solutions (NRS) point-of-sale platform, reflects performance across approximately 40,000 active terminals nationwide. Despite the sales growth, units sold decreased 1.5% year-over-year, and baskets per store fell 0.4%, indicating a reliance on higher prices rather than volume to drive revenue.

June Performance Metrics

The report highlights a moderation in sales growth compared to the previous month, with same-store sales increasing 4.0% year-over-year in May 2026. Month-over-month, June same-store sales decreased 0.6% from May 2026. The average price increase of 1.3% in June marked a slowdown from the 2.3% year-over-year rise observed in May 2026.

Quarterly and Operational Data

For the three months ended June 30, 2026, same-store sales increased 3.2% compared to the corresponding three-month period a year ago. The NRS platform processed $2.3 billion in sales across 151 million transactions during June 2026. The network serves approximately 34,500 independent retailers, including convenience stores, bodegas, and liquor stores, predominantly in urban areas.

Sector and Regional Trends

Brandon Thurber, VP, Data Sales & Client Success at NRS, noted that hydration and refreshment categories, such as coconut water and non-alcoholic beer, outpaced soft drinks. Prepared cocktails and nicotine pouches also drove growth. Regionally, cities in the Northeast and Upper Midwest outperformed the South and Southeast, with the exception of the Raleigh-Durham metro area, which saw strong sales increases.