Fiserv, Inc. has released the Fiserv Small Business Index for June 2026, reporting a 2.4% year-over-year increase in sales. The monthly index, which tracks consumer spending at small businesses, indicates steady short-term expansion with both nominal sales and transaction volume rising. Growth trends continue to reflect the ongoing impact of inflation, though a rebound in retail and higher average tickets provided momentum.

The seasonally adjusted Index increased to 145, with sales rising 0.8% month over month. Small business growth remained driven by higher average tickets, which increased 3.7% compared to 2025. Transactions continued their year-over-year downward trend of 1.3% but improved 0.5% month over month, signaling some stabilization in consumer activity.

"Small business spending in June was driven by a healthier balance between pricing gains and consumer activity," said Prasanna Dhore, Chief Data Officer, Fiserv. "Persistent inflation continues to shape spending behavior across both essential and discretionary categories, but the retail bounce and shift to goods spending suggest resilience."

Sector Performance

Retail Bounces Back

Total retail sales increased 3.0% year over year and 1.5% month over month, an improvement from May’s softer performance. Growth was supported by both transactions, which rose 2.7% year over year and 1.8% month over month, and modest price gains. Food and Beverage Retailers stabilized after prior declines, while categories such as Sporting Goods, Clothing, and Health and Personal Care showed improvements driven by increasing foot traffic.

Restaurants Hold Steady

Sales edged up 0.2% year over year, an improvement from last month’s falling sales. June’s growth remained driven by higher average tickets, which increased 3.3% year over year. Foot traffic continued its decline, falling 3.1% year over year, though the decrease in transactions slowed from the previous month. Limited-Service Restaurants continued to lag previous years, while Full-Service performance remained comparatively steady.

Gasoline Prices Ease

Sales at Gasoline Stations increased 15.3% year over year but declined 4.7% month over month. Average tickets fell 3.2% compared to May, providing consumers some relief at the pump. Despite easing prices, transaction activity declined both month over month and year over year by 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, reflecting lower demand in June.

Consumer Spending Rebalance

For the past 18 months, Essentials sales growth outperformed Discretionary, with Essentials average ticket growth remaining significantly higher. That gap has narrowed recently, supporting a return to goods spending. In June, Goods sales rose 3.0% year over year, driven by 2.5% transaction growth. Average tickets increased just 0.5% year over year. By contrast, Services grew 2.1% year over year but saw transactions decline 2.7% year over year on higher average tickets of 4.8%.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) accused Republicans of structuring President Donald Trump’s tax and spending bill to delay Medicaid cuts until after the midterm elections, arguing the timing was designed to limit political backlash. In a post on X on Sunday, Warren stated that the worst impacts of the legislation are "yet to come" and that this was by design. She alleged that the bill was structured so that Medicaid cuts would not take effect until after the November midterm elections, with Republicans counting on voters to forget the law’s impact by the time they cast their ballots.

Warren characterized the legislation as providing "massive tax handouts to the ultra-wealthy and to giant corporations" while reducing healthcare access. She warned that the changes could ultimately lead to millions losing coverage, framing the bill as a major redistribution of wealth. "We should be saying that every single day until the November election," she added in a video clip shared on social media.

Other Democratic senators joined the criticism of the bill. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) called Trump’s "Big, Beautiful Bill" a mechanism for "stealing from the poor to feed the rich." Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) stated that the legislation stripped healthcare and food assistance from millions to fund tax breaks for billionaires and corporations, vowing to continue fighting to repeal it.

Economic Projections

While Democrats criticized the bill's social impact, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a contrasting economic outlook earlier this year. He predicted that Trump’s bill would drive a "non-inflationary boom" in 2026, supported by rising business investment and manufacturing growth. Bessent cited tax incentives boosting capital spending and large-scale manufacturing commitments as factors lifting output, alongside stronger-than-expected GDP projections.