Global hiring momentum remains steady year-over-year but shows caution quarter-over-quarter, with the Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for Q3 2026 standing at 26%. According to ManpowerGroup's latest Employment Outlook Survey, which surveyed more than 40,500 employers across 42 countries, the figure is down five points from the previous quarter yet up two points from the same period last year. Outlooks weakened in 33 of 42 countries compared to the last quarter, signaling a labor market navigating uncertainty while pursuing selective opportunity.

Mid-size organizations, defined as those with 250–999 employees, report the strongest hiring intentions globally at 32%. This segment also recorded the largest year-over-year gains, increasing by six points, outpacing both small businesses and large enterprises. "Economic uncertainty, more than AI itself, is emerging as the primary driver of caution," said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup Chair & CEO. He noted that employers are hiring selectively for skills that drive transformation and productivity.

Hiring Plans and Drivers

While 42% of organizations plan to increase staff in Q3, down from 45% last quarter, 40% intend to maintain current headcount and 16% anticipate reductions. Anticipated hiring increases are primarily driven by company expansion, whereas expected decreases are fueled by economic challenges. The survey data highlights a complex picture where employers balance caution with the need for specific talent.

AI and Human Judgment in Hiring

Despite growing AI adoption, human elements remain central to recruitment. A person reviewing resumes is the most valued hiring resource at 57%, ranked above all AI and automated tools. Employers continue to prioritize people skills that command the highest premiums, including communication, collaboration, and teamwork (72%), as well as critical thinking and problem-solving (68%).

Sector and Regional Highlights

Sector-wise, Information (32%) and Construction & Real Estate (31%) report the strongest hiring plans for Q3 2026, followed by Finance & Insurance (29%). Utilities & Natural Resources posted the strongest year-over-year improvement, up eight points. Conversely, Hospitality reports the most cautious hiring plans at 14%, its lowest reading since Q3 2021.

Regionally, the Americas is the only area to strengthen compared to the same period last year, declining just three points quarter-over-quarter while improving seven points year-over-year. Puerto Rico (48%) and the United States (45%) lead in hiring confidence. Asia Pacific posts a 28% NEO, down 11 points quarter-over-quarter, with India (48%) leading globally. Europe and the Middle East report the weakest regional outlook at 16%.

The data for the third quarter was collected between April 1–30, 2026. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting the percentage expecting a decrease.