Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares have staged a sharp rebound since their August 6 low, fueled by easing concerns over insider selling and a renewed focus on artificial intelligence. The stock is now up over 28% for the month and trades above its $135 initial public offering price, reversing the sentiment that drove shares below the debut valuation earlier in the summer. Investors are increasingly reassessing the recent pullback as an overreaction to heavy capital expenditure, pivoting instead to the long-term earnings potential of SpaceX’s evolving business model.

The immediate catalyst for the renewed optimism was the expiration of the company’s first insider lock-up period last Thursday. More than 911.5 million insider-held shares became eligible for trading, more than doubling the publicly available float overnight. Contrary to fears of a mass exodus, the anticipated wave of selling did not materialize. Instead, the stock gained nearly 3% on the day eligibility kicked in, indicating that much of the lock-up anxiety had already been priced in during the prior pullback.

Musk’s AI Vision Reframes Growth Story

At a company-wide all-hands meeting this week, CEO Elon Musk outlined an ambitious vision that positioned artificial intelligence—not launch services—as the company’s next major growth engine. Musk revealed that SpaceX aims to build 10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity by the end of 2027, potentially representing around 20% of U.S. AI compute. He also predicted that AI-generated internet traffic could exceed human internet traffic by 1,000 times within five years.

These comments shifted attention away from near-term capital spending and toward the scale of SpaceX’s AI ambitions. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas described the lock-up expiration as an entry point, maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. Jonas characterized SpaceX as a potential generational compounder and set a mid-2027 price target of $300, implying roughly 126% upside from current levels.

Q2 Financial Performance and Starlink Growth

The stock’s volatility follows a strong second-quarter earnings report released last week. SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year, beating the $6.93 billion consensus estimate. The company also reported a per-share loss of 9 cents, which cleared the 24 cent consensus loss estimate. Operational metrics showed strength, with Starlink now serving 22 million mobile subscribers, an increase from the 12 million reported in the previous quarter update. The company ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash and cash equivalents.

Starlink continues to provide a strong financial foundation, generating roughly 70% of SpaceX’s revenue in the latest quarter. This high-margin connectivity business helps offset losses from the company’s capital-intensive AI and Starship businesses. Additionally, SpaceX reported a backlog of $47.5 billion, signaling robust future demand visibility.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between retail behavior and institutional outlook presents a key dynamic for SPCX. While retail investors initially took profits after the June surge, institutional analysts view the current price level as attractive relative to long-term growth trajectories. The company’s ability to generate $7.81 billion in revenue while maintaining $100 billion in cash suggests strong operational efficiency. The 92% year-over-year revenue growth, driven largely by the AI segment’s 247% expansion, indicates that SpaceX is successfully transitioning from a pure space infrastructure play to a diversified technology conglomerate. The lack of selling pressure during the 911.5 million share unlock further validates institutional confidence in the company’s fundamentals despite short-term price fluctuations.

Operational Catalysts Ahead

Looking ahead, investors are monitoring operational milestones. SpaceX was scheduled to launch a Falcon 9 carrying 29 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral on Monday morning. However, the launch was scrubbed and has been rescheduled for Tuesday morning. This operational event serves as a near-term catalyst to watch, as successful launches continue to drive subscriber growth and revenue realization for the Connectivity segment.

Ukraine’s military intelligence service warns that Russia is accelerating the deployment of its planned Rassvet low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation, a move that could eventually provide Moscow with Starlink-like battlefield connectivity.

Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitskiy, deputy head of Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence service, stated that Russia has begun launching the satellites much faster than originally planned. He noted that while the system currently operates only intermittently when satellites pass over Ukraine, Moscow intends to field 292 spacecraft by 2027 and 924 by 2035.

"Once Russia deploys a full satellite constellation, the system will operate like Starlink," Skibitskiy said. "Discussions are already underway on how to counter it."

Russia’s planned Starlink-like Rassvet constellation

The push for indigenous satellite connectivity follows Kyiv’s successful effort earlier this year to persuade Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) to disable unauthorized Starlink terminals used by Russian forces. This action disrupted Moscow’s battlefield connectivity.

In February, Elon Musk allowed broader Starlink use to support Ukraine after Kyiv pressed SpaceX to block Russian access. The network has become central to Ukrainian drone operations, while Russia has attempted to jam Starlink links used by Ukrainian strike units.

Benzinga reached out to SpaceX for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Ukraine Faces Growing Missile Defense Pressure

The Rassvet threat coincides with a missile-defense crunch for Ukraine. Skibitskiy reported that Russia had met its annual production goals for Zircon and Oniks missiles within seven months. Moscow is running 10% to 20% ahead of broader 2026 missile production targets.

Skibitskiy estimated that Moscow possesses about 130 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, having produced 65 in July alone.

Kyiv has warned that dwindling interceptor supplies could leave cities and energy infrastructure exposed this winter. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s envoy to Washington, stated, "The devastating effect of every overnight attack right now is unbelievable." She added, "We need the missiles."

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought an emergency package of 300 Patriot interceptors. These shortages are becoming more dangerous as Russia receives additional military support. AP reported this week that Zelenskyy said Moscow used North Korean ballistic missiles in an attack on Zaporizhzhia and warned Pyongyang was preparing to send more troops.

Kyiv Presses Musk for Wider Starlink Access

Ukraine is also pressing Musk to activate Starlink over Russian territory. Iryna Terekh, executive at Fire Point, told Politico that doing so would improve long-range Ukrainian strikes. "Our effectiveness would really rise," she said.