Peter Diamandis, host of The All In Podcast and an early investor in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX), stated on Wednesday that Elon Musk-led SpaceX has the potential to become a $10 trillion enterprise. The comment follows SpaceX's recent earnings call, where the company reported revenue up 92% and a backlog hitting $47.5 billion. Diamandis backed Musk's goal of reaching $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, asserting that the market currently lacks the framework to properly value the company's "civilizational-level" infrastructure.

Business Segments and Revenue Drivers

Diamandis described SpaceX as "four different businesses that are wrapped into a vertical." He highlighted several key growth drivers during an interview with CNBC:

The investor emphasized that SpaceX is building AI infrastructure "faster than anybody else." He noted that Musk confirmed the company will launch its first AI satellite in partnership with NVIDIA in 2027.

Market Reaction and Operational Events

While Diamandis focused on long-term valuation, TV host Jim Cramer advised investors to consider where SpaceX could be in decades rather than focusing on short-term stock movement. Cramer suggested that investments in SpaceX could yield returns for investors' children and grandchildren.

Separately, operational news emerged regarding a Falcon 9 rocket upper stage that crashed onto the Lunar surface on Wednesday after 18 months in space. NASA reported that the impact created a 60-foot-wide crater but posed no danger to Earth.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between SpaceX's current market perception and its recurring revenue base is notable. With $28 billion in annualized recurring revenue and a $47.5 billion backlog, the company demonstrates significant cash flow visibility. Diamandis' $10 trillion valuation target implies a massive multiple expansion beyond traditional aerospace metrics, relying heavily on the successful monetization of Starlink's direct-to-device capabilities and the new AI satellite segment.

Future Fund manager Gary Black warned retail investors against buying the dip in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares, citing an imminent surge in supply that threatens to overwhelm current demand. Black argued that the optimism driving individual investors to purchase shares overlooks a massive post-IPO share unlock scheduled for Thursday, which is set to more than double the company’s publicly tradable float.

The warning comes as Vanda Research data revealed a sharp divergence in trading behavior during Wednesday’s session. Individual investors bought a net $22 million of SpaceX shares in the first hour of trading, even as institutional investors sold off positions following the company’s first earnings report as a publicly traded entity. Black stated on X that the retail buying strategy "makes no sense" given that 911.5 million new SPCX shares are potentially entering the float tomorrow.

Unlock Mechanics and Supply Pressure

The upcoming lockup expiration covers approximately 7% of SpaceX’s 13.09 billion shares outstanding. The newly eligible shares are primarily held by executives, employees, and early investors. This release will significantly expand the freely tradable float, with additional share unlocks planned through June next year.

Valuation Concerns and Price Action

SpaceX shares have faced downward pressure this week despite beating Wall Street estimates in the second quarter. Investor focus shifted to the company’s $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, most of which was directed toward AI infrastructure. Tech analyst Dan Ives described the heavy investment as a "necessary buildout" for SpaceX’s long-term vision, but the market reaction has been negative.

Black previously predicted last month that the stock could fall below $100 in the coming weeks, citing excessive valuation and weakening sentiment toward AI-related stocks. Shares fell 13.61% on Tuesday to close at $108.27 before paring some losses in extended trading to gain 1.61%. The stock has declined approximately 52% from its post-IPO peak of about $225 reached shortly after its June debut.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between retail buying and institutional selling highlights a potential liquidity risk. With the float set to double, the existing demand from retail investors—represented by the $22 million net buy—is likely insufficient to absorb the sudden influx of 911.5 million shares without significant price impact. This supply shock, combined with high capital expenditure requirements, creates a challenging near-term outlook for the stock price.