Elon Musk’s net worth surged by $96 billion in a single day, reinforcing his status as the world’s wealthiest individual, as shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) rebounded sharply. The wealth increase coincided with SpaceX’s strongest trading day since its initial public offering in June, with the stock rising over 10% on Friday. This rally followed the company’s first earnings report as a publicly traded entity and the expiration of the employee lock-up period. Bloomberg data indicates Musk’s total net worth now exceeds $817 billion, marking an increase of $198 billion from the start of the year.

SpaceX delivered robust financial results for the quarter, with revenue jumping 92% to $7.8 billion. The connectivity segment emerged as the largest contributor, generating over $4.2 billion in revenue. The AI and space businesses contributed $2.5 billion and $962 million, respectively. Despite the top-line growth, capital expenditure remained heavy, with the company spending $15 billion on its AI business, $1.36 billion on connectivity, and $1.17 billion on space operations. On the balance sheet side, SpaceX concluded the quarter with more than $100 billion in cash and short-term investments.

Analyst Outlook and Valuation

Market sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive toward SpaceX. According to Benzinga data, the consensus price target among analysts stands at $229, representing a nearly 100% upside from current levels. Of the 39 analysts tracking the stock, 37 have assigned a buy rating. Only two firms, CFRA and Philip Securities, maintain a sell rating. Douglas Harned of Bernstein raised his target to $248, while Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its outlook at $246. Other bullish institutions include Royal Bank of Canada and William Blair.

What the Numbers Show

The financial data reveals a distinct divergence between revenue generation and capital intensity across SpaceX’s business units. While the connectivity segment is currently the primary revenue driver at $4.2 billion, it accounts for a relatively small fraction of total capital expenditure compared to the AI division. The AI business generated $2.5 billion in revenue but required $15 billion in spending, indicating a significant investment phase that has not yet yielded proportional top-line returns. This suggests that near-term profitability may be pressured by AI-related capex, even as the connectivity segment provides stable cash flow. Analysts project revenue will reach $44 billion this year and $90 billion next year, supported by Starlink and data center expansion.

Tesla continues to face headwinds amid intensifying competition in the electric vehicle industry and rising capital expenditures. Meanwhile, speculation regarding a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla persists, despite denials from the company. Reports suggested Musk was preparing to sell Tesla’s Chinese business to facilitate such a deal, though these claims have been refuted. Musk’s combined wealth now surpasses that of Larry Page, Jeff Bezos, and Michael Dell combined.

Institutional options traders are positioning for a near-term rally in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares, defying widespread concerns that Thursday’s massive post-IPO share unlock will depress the stock price. Despite the imminent eligibility of roughly 911 million previously restricted shares for trading, "smart money" is heavily accumulating short-term call options, signaling confidence that the market will absorb selling pressure and push the stock higher.

The most notable activity centers on SPCX call options expiring on Friday, Aug. 7, with a strike price of $111. According to options chain data on Nasdaq, the premium for these contracts spiked dramatically on Wednesday, surging by $2.40 to close at $6.55 per contract. This unusual activity effectively tripled the contract’s baseline price, suggesting traders expect the stock to swiftly clear the $111 mark by the end of the week.

Market Sentiment vs. Dilution Fears

This aggressive bullish positioning directly challenges the bearish narrative surrounding the company’s first major lock-up expiration. Gary Black of the Future Fund has been highly critical of investors buying into the aerospace giant ahead of the unlock. "This makes no sense with 911.5M new SPCX shares potentially entering SPCX’s float tomorrow, which will double its size," Black stated, questioning the logic of buying the recent dip.

However, the dilution impact is not instantaneous. The expiration of these locked shares—primarily held by executives, employees, and early investors—will occur in a staggered manner continuing through December. Additionally, Elon Musk’s personal shares remain locked until June 2027, meaning the freely tradable float will increase gradually rather than flooding the market entirely on Thursday.

Capital Expenditure Dynamics

SpaceX has faced recent downward pressure due to a massive $18.4 billion capital expenditure outlay, though some analysts view these investments as a long-term catalyst. Tech analyst Dan Ives characterized the dynamic as a "capex tug of war between SpaceX and investors," emphasizing that the spending represents a "necessary buildout." For now, options traders appear to be ignoring dilution fears in favor of this long-term growth narrative.

Stock Price Action

SPCX shares closed Wednesday at $108.27 per share and hovered around $110 to $111 in premarket trading, up by 2.53%. Despite this short-term optimism, Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SPCX maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between institutional options positioning and broader technical indicators highlights a split in market sentiment. While the tripling of premiums on $111 calls suggests a specific, time-bound bet on a breakout above resistance levels, the underlying weak price trend across all timeframes indicates persistent structural selling pressure. The staggered nature of the 911 million-share unlock provides a buffer against immediate liquidity shocks, allowing the market to test support levels without an instantaneous supply flood. This dynamic creates a high-volatility environment where short-term momentum may temporarily override longer-term valuation concerns.