Institutional options traders are positioning for a near-term rally in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares, defying widespread concerns that Thursday’s massive post-IPO share unlock will depress the stock price. Despite the imminent eligibility of roughly 911 million previously restricted shares for trading, "smart money" is heavily accumulating short-term call options, signaling confidence that the market will absorb selling pressure and push the stock higher.

The most notable activity centers on SPCX call options expiring on Friday, Aug. 7, with a strike price of $111. According to options chain data on Nasdaq, the premium for these contracts spiked dramatically on Wednesday, surging by $2.40 to close at $6.55 per contract. This unusual activity effectively tripled the contract’s baseline price, suggesting traders expect the stock to swiftly clear the $111 mark by the end of the week.

Market Sentiment vs. Dilution Fears

This aggressive bullish positioning directly challenges the bearish narrative surrounding the company’s first major lock-up expiration. Gary Black of the Future Fund has been highly critical of investors buying into the aerospace giant ahead of the unlock. "This makes no sense with 911.5M new SPCX shares potentially entering SPCX’s float tomorrow, which will double its size," Black stated, questioning the logic of buying the recent dip.

However, the dilution impact is not instantaneous. The expiration of these locked shares—primarily held by executives, employees, and early investors—will occur in a staggered manner continuing through December. Additionally, Elon Musk’s personal shares remain locked until June 2027, meaning the freely tradable float will increase gradually rather than flooding the market entirely on Thursday.

Capital Expenditure Dynamics

SpaceX has faced recent downward pressure due to a massive $18.4 billion capital expenditure outlay, though some analysts view these investments as a long-term catalyst. Tech analyst Dan Ives characterized the dynamic as a "capex tug of war between SpaceX and investors," emphasizing that the spending represents a "necessary buildout." For now, options traders appear to be ignoring dilution fears in favor of this long-term growth narrative.

Stock Price Action

SPCX shares closed Wednesday at $108.27 per share and hovered around $110 to $111 in premarket trading, up by 2.53%. Despite this short-term optimism, Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that SPCX maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between institutional options positioning and broader technical indicators highlights a split in market sentiment. While the tripling of premiums on $111 calls suggests a specific, time-bound bet on a breakout above resistance levels, the underlying weak price trend across all timeframes indicates persistent structural selling pressure. The staggered nature of the 911 million-share unlock provides a buffer against immediate liquidity shocks, allowing the market to test support levels without an instantaneous supply flood. This dynamic creates a high-volatility environment where short-term momentum may temporarily override longer-term valuation concerns.

Peter Diamandis, host of The All In Podcast and an early investor in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX), stated on Wednesday that Elon Musk-led SpaceX has the potential to become a $10 trillion enterprise. The comment follows SpaceX's recent earnings call, where the company reported revenue up 92% and a backlog hitting $47.5 billion. Diamandis backed Musk's goal of reaching $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, asserting that the market currently lacks the framework to properly value the company's "civilizational-level" infrastructure.

Business Segments and Revenue Drivers

Diamandis described SpaceX as "four different businesses that are wrapped into a vertical." He highlighted several key growth drivers during an interview with CNBC:

The investor emphasized that SpaceX is building AI infrastructure "faster than anybody else." He noted that Musk confirmed the company will launch its first AI satellite in partnership with NVIDIA in 2027.

Market Reaction and Operational Events

While Diamandis focused on long-term valuation, TV host Jim Cramer advised investors to consider where SpaceX could be in decades rather than focusing on short-term stock movement. Cramer suggested that investments in SpaceX could yield returns for investors' children and grandchildren.

Separately, operational news emerged regarding a Falcon 9 rocket upper stage that crashed onto the Lunar surface on Wednesday after 18 months in space. NASA reported that the impact created a 60-foot-wide crater but posed no danger to Earth.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between SpaceX's current market perception and its recurring revenue base is notable. With $28 billion in annualized recurring revenue and a $47.5 billion backlog, the company demonstrates significant cash flow visibility. Diamandis' $10 trillion valuation target implies a massive multiple expansion beyond traditional aerospace metrics, relying heavily on the successful monetization of Starlink's direct-to-device capabilities and the new AI satellite segment.