Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) rose sharply on Friday, defying broader market weakness triggered by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. The memory chip makers outperformed the S&P 500, which slipped 0.2%, as investors prioritized supply-driven pricing power over interest rate concerns.

The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the expected 56,000, while unemployment held at 4.1%. July payrolls were revised from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. This data revived bets on Federal Reserve tightening, with the probability of a 25-basis-point September hike climbing above 50% to 51% on Polymarket, up from 41% prior to the release.

Memory Stocks Shrug Off Rate Scare

Despite the hawkish repricing, Micron rose 5% and SanDisk jumped 8% in early trading. The two-year Treasury yield increased from 4.34% to as high as 4.425%, causing gold miners to sell off sharply. Spot gold fell about 1.4%, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF dropped roughly 1.9%, highlighting the divergence in memory stock performance.

Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: DELL) COO Jeff Clarke highlighted the severity of the supply constraint during the company’s earnings call, stating that shortages stretch across the semiconductor chain. He noted that demand for Dell’s servers continues to outrun supply, citing "DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND" as the primary bottleneck.

Susquehanna expects DRAM contract prices to rise more than 50% this quarter, while NAND prices could climb about 60%. DRAM accounts for roughly three-quarters of Micron’s revenue, while SanDisk is heavily exposed to NAND flash storage. Northlight Asset Management CIO Chris Zaccarelli suggested that optimism around the AI build-out and strong corporate earnings may currently outweigh changes in Fed policy for investor sentiment.

What the Numbers Show

The market’s reaction reveals a distinct decoupling between macro-sensitive assets and supply-constrained tech stocks. While gold miners fell roughly 1.9% due to rising yields, Micron and SanDisk posted double-digit percentage gains relative to their pre-report levels. This divergence suggests that immediate revenue visibility from price hikes—projected at over 50% for DRAM—is currently viewed by investors as a more potent driver of near-term earnings than the cost of capital implied by a 51% probability of a rate hike.

Memory Shortage Outweighs China Concerns

Friday’s surge followed a muted Thursday, when Micron gained just 0.22% and SanDisk 0.10% despite a 1.4% Nasdaq rally. On Thursday, concerns over Chinese rivals gaining market share weighed on sentiment. CXMT doubled its DRAM revenue share to 10% from 4% a year earlier, while YMTC’s NAND share climbed to 14% from 9%.

Investors now await the August CPI data on September 11 and the Fed’s September 16 decision to test whether memory stocks can sustain their momentum against potential inflation-driven rate expectations.

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) declined Thursday, underperforming the broader technology sector rally amid data showing rapid gains by Chinese memory manufacturers.

While peers like Palantir and Tesla rose, the memory chip makers faced headwinds from shifting competitive dynamics in the global supply chain.

China Takes Bigger Slice of Memory Market

Counterpoint Research reported that ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) captured 10% of global DRAM revenue in the second quarter, up from 4% a year earlier. This shift reduced the combined share held by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron to 87% from 94%.

In the NAND segment, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) increased its revenue share to 14% from 9%, overtaking SanDisk, whose share slipped to 11% from 12%.

These gains occurred during a memory boom rather than a downturn. Counterpoint noted the NAND market grew 70% sequentially in the second quarter as prices jumped 55%, while AI demand kept DRAM supply tight.

China Is Adding More Capacity

CXMT secured a more than 20 billion yuan (roughly $2.9 billion) three-to-five-year DRAM supply agreement with Tencent, Reuters reported in June. Expansion plans would lift monthly production capacity from about 300,000 to 600,000 wafers.

YMTC’s parent plans to raise about $4.9 billion through a Shanghai IPO to fund manufacturing upgrades and research.

TrendForce expects DRAM supply to remain constrained in 2027 but sees NAND entering a looser supply environment in the second half as new capacity comes online.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence in market share trends highlights a structural shift in competitive positioning. While Micron managed to increase its share in both DRAM (+2 pp) and NAND (+2 pp) segments, SanDisk lost ground in its core NAND business (-1 pp) as YMTC overtook it. This suggests SanDisk faces more immediate competitive pressure from Chinese expansion than Micron does in the current cycle.

Traders See $990 in Reach

Micron traded around $941 at the time of writing. Polymarket traders assigned roughly a 29% chance to Micron touching $990 before the end of the week, representing a gain of about 5% from current levels. The market attracted about $17,000 in trading volume.

A separate Polymarket market placed an 8% chance on the U.S. government taking an equity stake in Micron by year-end. These markets point to little immediate concern around Micron regarding China’s growing presence or expectations of Washington intervention.