Activist investor Dan Loeb’s Third Point LLC significantly reshuffled its semiconductor portfolio in the second quarter of 2026. The firm more than doubled its position in ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML), increasing its stake from 12,000 shares to 30,000 shares as of June 30.

Simultaneously, Third Point exited its entire holdings in four other major chipmakers: NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO), KLA Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC), and Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ: LRCX).

What the Numbers Show

The divergence in Loeb’s trading activity highlights a concentrated bet on lithography equipment against a broader retreat from peers. By tripling its share count in ASML while completely liquidating positions in competitors like KLA and Lam, Third Point is signaling a preference for ASML’s specific market positioning over the wider semiconductor equipment sector.

ASML Financial Performance and Outlook

ASML reported strong second-quarter results, with earnings per share of $8.82, beating the Wall Street consensus estimate of $7.98. Revenue rose to $10.84 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $10.28 billion.

Looking ahead, the company raised its full-year 2026 outlook. ASML now expects net sales between €43 billion and €45 billion, with a gross margin of 54% to 56%. For the third quarter, the firm forecasts revenue between €11 billion and €12 billion, alongside a gross margin of 55% to 57%.

Strategic Developments

ASML continues to advance its High Numerical Aperture Extreme Ultraviolet (High NA EUV) technology. Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Foundry has begun high-volume manufacturing of a subset of Intel Core Ultra Series 3 "Panther Lake" using this technology. Additionally, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (OTC: SSNLF) expanded its strategic partnership with ASML to deepen collaboration on High NA EUV and advanced manufacturing.

The company is also working with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (NYSE: TSM) to develop larger EUV photomasks aimed at boosting factory productivity and lowering production costs for advanced chips.

Market Performance and Valuation

Despite the strong earnings beat, ASML shares fell 6.01% on Monday, underperforming the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), which declined 1.64%. This relative weakness occurred as the broader technology sector faced a mild downtrend, down 3.01% over the past 30 days.

Analysts maintain a Buy rating for ASML with an average price target of $2,393.60. Recent upgrades include:

• JP Morgan: Overweight, target raised to $2,400.00
• Wells Fargo: Overweight, target raised to $2,500.00
• RBC Capital: Outperform, target raised to $2,100.00

Over the past year, ASML gained 83.37%, trailing the peer-group average return of 113.61%. The stock trades at a premium valuation with a P/E ratio of 57.5x.

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is exploring production of more than 110 extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) chip-printing machines for 2028, according to JPMorgan, which described artificial intelligence demand as "very very strong."

The Dutch lithography equipment maker saw its Amsterdam-listed shares fall 5.2% on Monday following a broader selloff in chip stocks. The decline followed calls from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk urging the industry to slow frontier AI capability gains.

Capacity Expansion Plans

JPMorgan analysts met with ASML CFO Roger Dassen and noted that most new EUV orders are now scheduled for delivery in 2028. ASML stated in July that its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity stands at around 65 machines.

The company plans to increase this capacity by 30% in 2027 and is examining another 30% increase for 2028. ASML is already nearly sold out for 2027, with production capacity of at least 80 machines.

JPMorgan identified assembly speed, rather than supply chain constraints, as ASML's primary bottleneck. The bank expects Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) to become a "meaningful customer again" in 2027. Additionally, Elon Musk's planned Terafab is developing as a customer.

Market Context and Valuation

ASML remains the sole commercial supplier of EUV lithography machines, which cost roughly $200 million each. Its customer base includes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM), Samsung Electronics, and Intel. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) relies on foundries like TSMC, which use ASML equipment to manufacture GPUs.

Prediction markets reflect lingering skepticism about an immediate AI downturn. Polymarket assigns a 13% chance to an AI industry bust by December 31, up from 11% the previous week. Approximately $2.4 million has been traded on this contract.

What the Numbers Show

A divergence exists between short-term market sentiment and long-term industrial planning. While ASML shares fell 5.2% on news of potential AI slowdowns, the company is actively expanding capacity for deliveries two years out. With 2027 nearly sold out and 2028 orders already booking, the constraint has shifted from supply chain availability to physical assembly speed, indicating sustained demand despite regulatory caution calls.