Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick declared the crypto winter over on Friday, asserting that Bitcoin's drop to $59,000 marked the lowest point of this cycle. The call represents a direct reversal of his February note, where he warned of pain and capitulation and cut his near-term Bitcoin target to $50,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades near $64,000, recovering from its recent low.

Kendrick's thesis rests on three converging catalysts that arrived simultaneously on Friday. Oil prices fell 1.5% to $86 per barrel following an announcement that a potential US-Iran peace deal could occur this weekend ahead of the G7 summit. Additionally, SpaceX's $75 billion IPO launched, which Kendrick argued pulled capital out of Bitcoin ETFs as investors sold to free up cash for the offering rather than exiting crypto on fundamental concerns.

Verification Requirements

Kendrick specified that his call requires verification across three specific data points to confirm the bottom. Bitcoin ETFs must post net inflows, reversing the roughly $5 billion in net outflows recorded since mid-May. Oil prices need to continue their decline. Finally, Strategy Inc. needs to announce a Bitcoin purchase on Monday.

Technical Levels and Scenarios

The Parabolic SAR flipped bullish at $59,168, sitting below the price for the first time in weeks. If the verification conditions fail and Bitcoin loses the $59,000 wick low, the SAR signal invalidates, opening a move toward $55,000 to $56,000. Conversely, reclaiming $65,000 on the back of confirmed ETF inflows and falling oil targets a recovery leg toward $68,000 to $71,000.

Bitcoin's current downturn fits the profile of a classic but mild bear market, according to Strive executive Matt Cole. Speaking on the Bitcoin Magazine Podcast on June 10, Cole stated that the asset is already in a bottoming process. He emphasized that the fundamentals around Bitcoin have never been stronger, pointing to growing institutional adoption, ETF distribution through retirement accounts, improving regulation, and the rise of digital credit products.

Cole expects Bitcoin could move back above $80,000 and potentially return to six figures later this year. He highlighted that BTC-backed digital credit products represent a new source of capital entering the ecosystem. The demand for these instruments is not primarily coming from investors selling Bitcoin, but from fresh capital seeking yield.

Digital Credit and Yields

The emergence of digital credit products is seen as a mechanism to make future bear markets less severe. Cole noted that retail investors and independent financial advisers have led early adoption, similar to how retail investors embraced Bitcoin before institutions. He mentioned specific products in the market, including Strive's (NASDAQ: SATA) 13% dividend and Strategy's (NASDAQ: STRC) 11.5% dividend.

These yields can help investors beat fiat debasement while gaining exposure to Bitcoin-backed balance sheets.

Critique of Fiat Systems

Cole argued that the long-term case for Bitcoin remains rooted in the failure of fiat currencies and rising debt burdens. "The fiat system, I think, has basically terminal cancer," he said. He contended that fixed income and the traditional 60/40 portfolio are structurally challenged because investors are buying debt during a debt crisis. In his view, digital credit could become a replacement for part of the income sleeve in portfolios by offering yield without relying on traditional government or corporate debt.