Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million, but its path to a new all-time high may require a major catalyst that reinforces its role as decentralized financial infrastructure, according to a Morgan Stanley executive.

Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, Amy Oldenburg, head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, said Bitcoin’s long-term adoption story remains in its early stages even as major financial institutions continue building products around the asset. The firm recently launched its Bitcoin exchange-traded product (MSBT), which she said had the best first-day ETF debut in Morgan Stanley’s history.

Morgan Stanley recommends Bitcoin allocations of 0%-2% in some portfolios and 2%-4% in more aggressive portfolios, but adoption among financial advisors remains slower than client interest, Oldenburg pointed out. She attributed the gap primarily to education, noting that many advisers are still trying to understand where Bitcoin fits in a diversified portfolio.

Why BTC Has Not Hit $200,000 Yet

Asked why Bitcoin has not reached $200,000 despite institutional participation, spot products and corporate accumulation, Oldenburg said no single factor is responsible. She pointed to competing narratives including commodities, AI, quantum computing fears and broader asset-allocation shifts. Investor attention has repeatedly moved toward other growth themes, making Bitcoin’s path less linear. Thus, a stronger catalyst may be needed to push Bitcoin toward its next major phase of adoption.

Rather than a sudden vertical move, Oldenburg expects Bitcoin adoption to continue grinding higher through 2030, with more investors entering the market as education improves and infrastructure matures.

Bitcoin Is Not The Same As Crypto

Oldenburg also warned against treating all crypto assets as identical. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP each serve different purposes and should not be lumped together simply because they fall under the broad digital asset category, according to Oldenburg.

Leading cryptocurrencies traded sideways on Wednesday as the U.S. military launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran, dampening risk-on appetite across financial markets. Bitcoin and Ethereum showed little movement, while altcoins such as XRP and Dogecoin dipped. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.12 trillion, following a decline of 0.33% from the previous day.

Market Performance

Bitcoin spiked to an intraday high of $62,788 but faced resistance, while Ethereum meandered in the $1,600 zone. Over $400 million was liquidated from the market in the last 24 hours, with long position traders bearing the brunt of the losses. Bitcoin's open interest rose marginally by 0.84% as traders remained long on the cryptocurrency.

Top Gainers

While major assets stagnated, select cryptocurrencies posted significant gains.

Analyst Outlook

Market analysts suggest Bitcoin has not yet established a definitive bottom. Michaël van de Poppe noted a lack of strength and predicted a test of recent lows to sweep liquidity. He stated that technical indicators are not bullish until Bitcoin breaks above $64,000.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported that realized losses have not reached capitulation levels. Sellers realized 187,000 BTC of losses in the last month, significantly lower than the 1.2 million BTC realized at the November 2022 cycle bottom. The firm indicated that while the price bottom may be near, a regime change into a bull market requires a demand recovery not yet visible in the data.