SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated on Tuesday that Bitcoin appears to be following its typical four-year cycle and may be nearing a bottom. He suggested that if the cycle theory holds, the cryptocurrency could recover by the early part of Q4 2026 or possibly into Q1 2027. Scaramucci described the pattern as a self-fulfilling prophecy where traders sell to match market expectations.

During a conversation with Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Scaramucci emphasized his status as a long-term believer in Bitcoin. He highlighted that the asset is currently moving through a phase of accumulation, a bull run, and a subsequent bear market. The founder noted that over 70% of his net worth is invested in Bitcoin, and he has set a $1 million price target for the asset by 2032.

Scaramucci pointed to the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a key indicator supporting his view. As of the report, Bitcoin's RSI was below 30, a level that typically indicates an asset is oversold and may be due for an upward price bounce. This technical signal aligns with his observation of the four-year cycle playing out.

Other market experts have echoed similar sentiments regarding Bitcoin's trajectory. Lucy Gazmararian, Founder and Managing Partner of Token Bay Capital, stated the current environment resembles previous mid-cycle bear markets. She expects a recovery by the end of 2026 but warned that a failure to recover by Q4 could signal more serious issues.

Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency analyst and trader, also leaned toward the possibility of a market bottom. He identified $53,900 and $43,150 as key historical zones where premier accumulation windows have formed. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $61,237.57, up 3.42% in the last 24 hours.

Lekker Capital's Quinn Thompson advises investors to avoid the crypto market for the summer and return in late Q3. This recommendation is driven by record IPO supply, waning liquidity, and unresolved problems at Strategy and Bitmine. Thompson's bearish case rests on three overlapping pressures hitting the market simultaneously.

SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are collectively bringing more than $3 trillion in new IPO supply to market, competing directly with existing tech names for capital. The Mag7 stocks that historically lead bull markets are lagging while the rest of the Nasdaq carries the index, a pattern Thompson describes as classic late-cycle behavior. Meanwhile, STRC is approaching one of its worst drawdowns since launch, and Thompson expects Strategy to raise its dividend by 50 basis points rather than the usual 25, adding to its cash obligations.

Thompson identified a prisoner's dilemma facing major cloud companies. If they keep spending on AI infrastructure, free cash flow and buybacks decline and their equities lag. If they cut spending to restore balance sheets, semiconductor and AI supply chain names crash, taking the broader tech index down with them. Either path leads to lower tech prices, which removes capital that would otherwise flow into Bitcoin and crypto.

Thompson pointed to 140-plus activist groups across 24 states already blocking over $64 billion in data center development. He also noted Trump previously signaled tech companies should pay for their own power costs, a message he expects to return ahead of midterms.

Thompson flagged one additional risk. USDJPY is approaching its fourth highest weekly close in nearly 50 years, with a Bank of Japan meeting scheduled the day before the June FOMC. If Japan does not use that window to strengthen the yen, Thompson expects a breakout above 160, which Japanese policymakers will strongly want to avoid and which could trigger volatility across all risk assets at once.