Coinbase Global Inc shares jumped more than 11% on Tuesday as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Congress is at the "one-yard line" on the Clarity Act, boosting optimism across the cryptocurrency market. The regulatory progress helped push Bitcoin toward $67,000, highlighting the exchange's sensitivity to the evolving legislative landscape for digital assets. However, political hurdles remain, and prediction markets still place the odds of passage below a coin flip.

Bessent urged lawmakers to finalize the legislation before departing for the August recess, according to a Bloomberg report. While social media chatter suggests the White House agreed to an ethics package related to the act, Democrats say they were shut out of the talks and have not seen the text. This is significant because the bill requires 60 votes to pass the Senate, and Republicans currently hold 53 seats.

Democrats have demanded rules preventing the president and senior officials from profiting off crypto, a stance that hardened after a government disclosure reportedly showed President Donald Trump earned around $1.4 billion in crypto-related income in 2025. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) told Fox Business the Senate is "almost there," noting the biggest holdup is Democrats reading new amendments. He indicated there is agreement that the Department of Justice would be the prevailing enforcer of ethics rules, a characterization Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) called "unserious."

Legislative Odds and Market Impact

Despite the bullish sentiment from executive branch comments, prediction markets remain skeptical. Polymarket's contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 traded near 47% on Tuesday. While this is up from a record low of 31% earlier this month, it still reflects less than a 50% probability of success. Galaxy Research previously cut its passage odds to 50-50, citing the shrinking Senate calendar.

The legislative timeline has direct financial consequences. Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 earlier this month, slashing its ETF inflow expectations to zero after concluding the legislative timeline had slipped. The bank noted that unexpected legislative progress could quickly change that outlook.

Technically, Coinbase stock is trading above its short-term moving averages but below key long-term levels. Momentum indicators show improvement, with the MACD above its signal line, but the "death cross" from December 2025 remains in effect. Key resistance is identified at $213.50, while support sits at $148.00. At the time of publication, Coinbase shares were up 11.66% at $179.14.

Coinbase Global Inc. CEO Brian Armstrong stated that the cryptocurrency sector is entering a new phase where Bitcoin serves as digital gold, while stablecoins, tokenized assets, and AI-powered commerce will drive blockchain adoption. Speaking on entrepreneur Nikhil Kamath’s podcast on July 16, Armstrong argued that the industry’s biggest opportunity is no longer speculative trading but rebuilding the global financial system on blockchain rails.

Armstrong acknowledged that Bitcoin’s original vision as peer-to-peer electronic cash has largely evolved. He stated that Bitcoin has succeeded as a store of value and has become digital gold. Meanwhile, stablecoins have increasingly filled the role of blockchain-based payment infrastructure. Armstrong described stablecoins as one of crypto’s fastest-growing use cases, combining near-instant settlement with low transaction costs and global accessibility. He expects stablecoins, rather than Bitcoin, to power everyday payments, remittances, and AI-driven transactions, which are ideal for machine-to-machine commerce.

While Bitcoin remains crypto’s primary store-of-value asset, Armstrong sees utility-focused blockchains such as Ethereum, Solana, and Coinbase-incubated Base as networks where payments, decentralized finance, tokenized assets, and AI applications are being built. He identified Base and Solana as leading candidates for crypto’s “utility layer,” where developers are building lending, payments, and capital formation products on-chain rather than simply launching speculative tokens.

Regulation and Future Outlook

Armstrong noted that clearer crypto regulation has accelerated institutional participation in major markets. He expressed optimism that U.S. lawmakers could advance comprehensive market-structure legislation in the coming months. He also argued that countries should develop regulated versions of their own fiat-backed stablecoins rather than relying exclusively on U.S. dollar-denominated digital assets. Looking ahead, he believes the next phase of crypto adoption will be driven less by trading and more by real-world financial infrastructure, AI-powered commerce, and the tokenization of global assets.