Bitcoin has broken above $65,000 and is testing its previous high near $67,260, but analyst Jason Pizzino suggests it is too early to declare the bear-market bottom is in. Pizzino notes that while the market structure improved in late June and early July, Bitcoin remains below critical moving averages that have historically confirmed new bull-market cycles. The cryptocurrency established a yearly low near $57,000 around July 1 before forming a bullish signal, though historical data shows August is often a weak month for Bitcoin.

Key Levels and Moving Averages

Pizzino highlighted the 200-day moving average as a significant hurdle, noting it rejected Bitcoin during its May rally. He expects BTC to consolidate while this declining average approaches the market price. Approximately $71,000 is identified as an important level, representing a macro 50% retracement and potentially aligning with the 200-day moving average. Historical bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2023 featured prolonged accumulation below or around the 200-day average before a high-volume breakout.

Critical Price Targets

Seasonality and Macro Uncertainty

July has frequently produced gains after a negative June, matching Bitcoin’s current rebound, but August has historically been one of its weakest months. Green August returns are more common near bull market peaks than during bear-market or accumulation years. Pizzino said the combination of seasonality and macro uncertainty leaves room for Bitcoin to revisit lower levels, potentially the $40,000 range, without invalidating the longer-term bottoming process.

Confirming a New Cycle

A move above $83,000 could confirm a major trend change, representing an overbalance in price compared with previous rallies during the downturn. This level could align with the declining 50-week moving average, currently near $86,000. In previous cycles, a sustained move above this indicator led to higher prices, barring brief disruptions like the 2020 pandemic crash. The 200-week moving average may provide additional confirmation later. Pizzino emphasized that confirmation typically comes several months after the exact price bottom.

Bitcoin treasury companies now sit on tens of billions in unrealized losses after the token dropped 50% from its October peak. The decline has severely impacted firms that stockpiled the cryptocurrency, with the largest players reporting the deepest deficits. The only companies bucking the trend are those focused on Hyperliquid, which have managed to secure gains despite the broader market downturn.

Unrealized losses across major firms

Data from Artemis Analytics cited by Bloomberg shows the damage runs deep across the sector. The following table details the unrealized losses for the most affected companies as of July 22, 2026.

Hyperliquid Strategies (NASDAQ: PURR) is the notable exception, sitting on a $1.3 billion unrealized gain.

SPAC mergers face headwinds

The market downturn has disrupted plans for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) mergers. BSTR Holdings scrapped its planned merger with a Cantor Fitzgerald-affiliated blank-check company earlier this month, citing the need to revise terms to better reflect current market conditions. BSTR was co-founded by Adam Back, whose 1997 cryptographic system Hashcash was cited in the original Bitcoin white paper.

Sponsors have also abandoned a $1 billion vehicle that had lined up former U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross for its board, as well as a $1.5 billion deal involving Ether Machine. For firms that did list recently, the reception has been grim. Avalanche Treasury Corp. (NASDAQ: AVAT) is down more than 70% since it began trading on June 11.

Rise and risks of the crypto treasury model

Strategy’s Michael Saylor pioneered the crypto treasury model, which gained momentum in April 2025 after DeFi Development Corp. (NASDAQ: DFDV) shares surged ninefold in one session. The surge followed a $125 million investment led by Pantera Capital’s Cosmo Jiang. Hundreds of teams copied the model within months.

Treasury companies are effectively a leveraged bet on whatever token they hold. Shares tend to amplify both gains and losses relative to the underlying asset. Strategy alone holds roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million supply. Back framed the model’s logic as an arbitrage on Bitcoin’s long-run growth curve outpacing the cost of capital. However, Bitcoin trading at $66,000, still below its price at the time of Donald Trump’s November 2024 presidential election victory, has made that arbitrage considerably harder to close.