Space Exploration Technologies Corp shares have fallen approximately 46% from their post-IPO high, trading at $121 on Monday, a drop economist Peter Schiff cites as evidence that the artificial intelligence-induced stock bubble has popped. Schiff, co-founder of Echelon Wealth Partners, highlighted the decline amid intensifying low-cost competition from Chinese rivals like Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3. The stock subsequently closed under $120, more than 11% below its IPO price of $135, prompting Schiff to state that the chart is not looking good.

Valuation Concerns and Historical Comparisons

The decline has reduced the company's market capitalization to roughly $1.7 trillion. The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black argues this valuation is mathematically unjustified given a forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of about 40 times. Black stated that investors are breaking the primary rule of investing by conflating a great business with a great stock, noting no historical precedent for a trillion-dollar company sustaining such a multiple. He reiterated that he would not get excited about the stock until it trades below $100.

Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson also expressed bearish sentiments, noting that SpaceX is still trading at 92 times trailing revenues, which he described as nearly 10 times overvalued. Black highlighted that even major technology companies like Nvidia Corp., Tesla Inc., Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., and Amazon.com Inc. have historically traded at significantly lower forward revenue multiples, generally between 10 and 25 times during revenue acceleration.

Wall Street Divided on Outlook

Despite the bearish perspective from Schiff, Black, and Tilson, Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Raymond James Financial Inc. recently initiated coverage with a strong buy rating and an $800 price target, arguing that SpaceX’s Starship will create new markets through satellite deployments and space manufacturing. The firm projected Starlink’s revenue will reach $837 billion in 2031. The consensus price target stands at $236, with other firms like Morgan Stanley, Needham, and Evercore ISI maintaining positive ratings.

Financial Performance and Upcoming Catalysts

SpaceX reported first-quarter revenue of $4.6 billion, up from $4.067 billion in Q1’25, but recorded a net loss of over $4 billion. Investors are now focused on the upcoming earnings report, expected around August 17, followed by the expiration of the IPO lockup period. Analysts project revenue will jump to $6.87 billion in the second quarter and rise to $12 billion in the third quarter, driven by its data center business and major deals with Alphabet, Anthropic, and Reflection AI.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is targeting Thursday for the thirteenth flight test of its Starship rocket, following an abort seconds before liftoff earlier in the week. The announcement has driven prediction market odds for a successful launch this week to 55%, up from 23% prior to the update. Polymarket bettors have wagered over $440,000 on the outcome, with an 89% probability assigned to a launch by the end of the month. The rules specify that any anomaly or explosion after launch does not affect the outcome.

The upcoming flight aims to complete objectives similar to those of the twelfth test in May. During that mission, the upper stage successfully released 20 test satellites and splashed down safely, but the Super Heavy booster experienced engine failures during its return. The booster crashed hard instead of performing a controlled descent, leading the Federal Aviation Administration to classify the event as a mishap. The FAA has since accepted SpaceX’s corrective actions and cleared the company to proceed with the test flight campaign.

Starship is central to Elon Musk’s plan to expand spaceflight capacity and eventually send humans to Mars. The company has spent more than $15 billion developing the vehicle. The scrubbed mission earlier in the week aimed to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, each weighing up to 2,000 kilograms and capable of moving 1 terabit per second. These satellites are too large for a Falcon 9 fairing, making Starship the only viable deployment vehicle.

SpaceX shares were up 1.08% in overnight trading after closing 5.43% lower at $123.99 during Friday’s regular session. The stock is trading below its $135 IPO price and sits 18.4% below its 20-day simple moving average of $151.60, signaling short-term bearish momentum. Key resistance is situated at $135.82 near the 20-day exponential moving average, while immediate support is found at $126.30.

Key Technical Indicators

The failed launch highlights the technical challenges SpaceX faces in proving rapid reusability, a capability analysts view as essential for the company’s long-term economic model. JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman has emphasized that the economic driver is not just launch success but the ability to fly the same vehicle repeatedly and quickly. This "airline-like" operations model is necessary to lower launch costs and support projects like orbital data centers. ARK Invest has estimated the orbital data center market could reach $28.5 trillion, while Morgan Stanley has projected $3.3 trillion in revenue for SpaceX by 2040.