Bill Ackman Says 'Never Bet Against Elon' Amid SpaceX Decline, Explains Why Pershing Square Doesn't Own SpaceX

2 min read     Updated on 21 Jul 2026, 03:48 PM
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AI Summary

Bill Ackman praised SpaceX's Starlink as 'enormously profitable' and a 'near monopoly' in satellite internet, and called Elon Musk the 'most talented technologist, entrepreneur of our generation.' However, he explained that SpaceX is not part of Pershing Square's portfolio due to a lack of predictability, and flagged valuation concerns at 'six or seven' trillion. Separately, Peter Schiff and Gary Black expressed bearish views on SpaceX, with Black noting the company's approximately $1.7 trillion market cap should not mathematically yield an enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of about 40 times. SpaceX shares were down 1.56% at $122.06 during pre-market trading on Tuesday.

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Pershing Square Inc. founder Bill Ackman has publicly backed Elon Musk and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), describing the commercial spaceflight company as a "very interesting business," while simultaneously explaining why the firm does not hold a position in the stock.

Ackman on SpaceX: Admiration With Reservations

During an interview with Money News Network on Monday, Ackman was asked to choose between Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX as an investment. He noted that Anthropic was the leader in frontier models, while expressing concerns about losses for OpenAI in the "foreseeable future."

On SpaceX, Ackman highlighted the strength of its Starlink division, calling it "enormously profitable" and a "near monopoly" in global satellite-based internet services. He also pointed out that SpaceX was the only company capable of providing businesses with the ability to "rent 100,000 GPUs."

Ackman described Musk as the "most talented technologist, entrepreneur of our generation," but raised concerns about the company's valuation. He noted that the "price" — at "six or seven" trillion — left less upside for investors. "The word is never bet against Elon," Ackman said, underscoring his respect for Musk's track record.

Despite this praise, Ackman was clear about why SpaceX does not feature in Pershing Square's portfolio, stating the company did not have the "degree of predictability that we're looking for."

Key Views on SpaceX

Parameter: Ackman's Assessment
Starlink: "Enormously profitable," "near monopoly" in satellite internet
GPU Rental: Only company able to offer businesses 100,000 GPU rentals
Elon Musk: "Most talented technologist, entrepreneur of our generation"
Valuation Concern: Priced at "six or seven" trillion — less upside
Portfolio Inclusion: Excluded due to lack of "degree of predictability"

Ackman's Views on Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft

Ackman also shared his perspective on other major technology companies during the interview. He described Microsoft Corp, Meta Platforms Inc., and Amazon.com Inc. as "cheap stocks."

"If Microsoft and Amazon and Meta are cheap stocks, which we believe they are, you could argue the market's not expensive at all," Ackman noted. To illustrate Amazon's value proposition, he cited the example of purchasing a book at a brick-and-mortar store versus ordering it on Amazon, which he said can deliver the book "in two hours."

Broader Market Sentiment on SpaceX

Ackman's comments came against a backdrop of growing bearish sentiment around SpaceX shares. Economist and Echelon Wealth Partners co-founder Peter Schiff argued on Monday that the AI bubble had officially popped, pointing to SpaceX's stock decline as evidence. Schiff had previously suggested that SpaceX's decline could spell the end for the "overpriced" U.S. stock market.

Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC also expressed bearish sentiments on SpaceX, stating that the company's market capitalization of approximately $1.7 trillion should not "mathematically" result in an enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of about 40 times.

According to Benzinga Edge Rankings, SpaceX fails to provide a favorable price trend in the short, medium, and long term. SpaceX shares were down 1.56% at $122.06 during pre-market trading on Tuesday.

What specific metrics or milestones would SpaceX need to achieve to satisfy Ackman's requirement for a 'degree of predictability'?

How might the commercialization of SpaceX's GPU rental services impact the competitive landscape for cloud providers like Amazon and Microsoft?

Could the divergence between Ackman's valuation concerns and the company's potential revenue streams trigger a broader re-rating of the commercial space sector?

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SpaceX targets Thursday launch as prediction markets raise odds

2 min read     Updated on 20 Jul 2026, 09:08 AM
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AI Summary

SpaceX is targeting Thursday for Starship's 13th flight test after an earlier abort, pushing prediction market odds to 55%. The FAA has cleared the company to proceed following a mishap investigation into the previous flight's booster crash. Shares closed lower at $123.99 but rose overnight, as the company focuses on proving rapid reusability to support long-term revenue projections.

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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is targeting Thursday for the thirteenth flight test of its Starship rocket, following an abort seconds before liftoff earlier in the week. The announcement has driven prediction market odds for a successful launch this week to 55%, up from 23% prior to the update. Polymarket bettors have wagered over $440,000 on the outcome, with an 89% probability assigned to a launch by the end of the month. The rules specify that any anomaly or explosion after launch does not affect the outcome.

The upcoming flight aims to complete objectives similar to those of the twelfth test in May. During that mission, the upper stage successfully released 20 test satellites and splashed down safely, but the Super Heavy booster experienced engine failures during its return. The booster crashed hard instead of performing a controlled descent, leading the Federal Aviation Administration to classify the event as a mishap. The FAA has since accepted SpaceX’s corrective actions and cleared the company to proceed with the test flight campaign.

Starship is central to Elon Musk’s plan to expand spaceflight capacity and eventually send humans to Mars. The company has spent more than $15 billion developing the vehicle. The scrubbed mission earlier in the week aimed to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, each weighing up to 2,000 kilograms and capable of moving 1 terabit per second. These satellites are too large for a Falcon 9 fairing, making Starship the only viable deployment vehicle.

SpaceX shares were up 1.08% in overnight trading after closing 5.43% lower at $123.99 during Friday’s regular session. The stock is trading below its $135 IPO price and sits 18.4% below its 20-day simple moving average of $151.60, signaling short-term bearish momentum. Key resistance is situated at $135.82 near the 20-day exponential moving average, while immediate support is found at $126.30.

Key Technical Indicators

Indicator Value
Current Price $123.99
52-Week Low $123.99 (New)
Prior 52-Week Low $130.74
20-Day SMA $151.60
50-Day SMA $87.01
200-Day SMA $39.28
June Peak $225.64

The failed launch highlights the technical challenges SpaceX faces in proving rapid reusability, a capability analysts view as essential for the company’s long-term economic model. JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman has emphasized that the economic driver is not just launch success but the ability to fly the same vehicle repeatedly and quickly. This "airline-like" operations model is necessary to lower launch costs and support projects like orbital data centers. ARK Invest has estimated the orbital data center market could reach $28.5 trillion, while Morgan Stanley has projected $3.3 trillion in revenue for SpaceX by 2040.

Will a successful launch this week be sufficient to reverse the current bearish momentum and push the stock back above its IPO price?

How will the FAA classify the outcome of this flight if the booster again fails a controlled descent, and could that trigger another investigation delay?

What are the specific technical milestones required during this test to prove the rapid reusability necessary for the airline-like operations model?

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