Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is targeting Thursday for the thirteenth flight test of its Starship rocket, following an abort seconds before liftoff earlier in the week. The announcement has driven prediction market odds for a successful launch this week to 55%, up from 23% prior to the update. Polymarket bettors have wagered over $440,000 on the outcome, with an 89% probability assigned to a launch by the end of the month. The rules specify that any anomaly or explosion after launch does not affect the outcome.

The upcoming flight aims to complete objectives similar to those of the twelfth test in May. During that mission, the upper stage successfully released 20 test satellites and splashed down safely, but the Super Heavy booster experienced engine failures during its return. The booster crashed hard instead of performing a controlled descent, leading the Federal Aviation Administration to classify the event as a mishap. The FAA has since accepted SpaceX’s corrective actions and cleared the company to proceed with the test flight campaign.

Starship is central to Elon Musk’s plan to expand spaceflight capacity and eventually send humans to Mars. The company has spent more than $15 billion developing the vehicle. The scrubbed mission earlier in the week aimed to deploy 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, each weighing up to 2,000 kilograms and capable of moving 1 terabit per second. These satellites are too large for a Falcon 9 fairing, making Starship the only viable deployment vehicle.

SpaceX shares were up 1.08% in overnight trading after closing 5.43% lower at $123.99 during Friday’s regular session. The stock is trading below its $135 IPO price and sits 18.4% below its 20-day simple moving average of $151.60, signaling short-term bearish momentum. Key resistance is situated at $135.82 near the 20-day exponential moving average, while immediate support is found at $126.30.

Key Technical Indicators

The failed launch highlights the technical challenges SpaceX faces in proving rapid reusability, a capability analysts view as essential for the company’s long-term economic model. JPMorgan analyst Seth Seifman has emphasized that the economic driver is not just launch success but the ability to fly the same vehicle repeatedly and quickly. This "airline-like" operations model is necessary to lower launch costs and support projects like orbital data centers. ARK Invest has estimated the orbital data center market could reach $28.5 trillion, while Morgan Stanley has projected $3.3 trillion in revenue for SpaceX by 2040.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. faces a potential surge in share supply that could pressure its stock price, according to market strategist George Noble. He estimates the company's tradable float could increase by roughly 900% over the coming months as insider shares become eligible for sale. This supply shock contrasts with the scarcity that drove the stock's initial rally, when less than 5% of shares were freely tradable at debut. Noble argues that while valuation concerns are valid, the primary risk is the mechanical selling pressure from employees and early investors monetizing holdings at lower valuations.

The Future Fund LLC's Gary Black renewed his skepticism toward SpaceX early Wednesday, stating the company's valuation and upcoming share unlocks leave little room for upside. Black noted SpaceX is already a megacap with a $1.8T market cap and is not expected to turn profitable until 2027. He highlighted the stock trades at about 47 times projected 2026 enterprise value-to-revenue and 110 times value-to-EBITDA. Black shared a Bloomberg News report indicating SpaceX shares had fallen to within $1 of their $135 IPO price after giving up roughly one-third of their post-listing gains.

Lock-Up Expiration Risks

The first meaningful unlock arrives after second-quarter earnings, when 20% of locked shares become eligible for sale. Further lock-up expirations are scheduled for late August through October, with additional tranches unlocking every few weeks. The largest release comes after third-quarter earnings, followed by the expiration of the six-month lockup in December. Noble estimates insiders could be free to sell as much as 44% of the company by early September. Black said the staggered releases would increase the tradable float by about 900%, adding that "valuation has to matter at some point."

Valuation Concerns and Market Sentiment

Noble questioned the company's valuation, noting that SpaceX has yet to report an annual profit and traded above 90 times revenue at its IPO. The multiple briefly approached 140 times during the stock's early rally. While he described Starlink as "a wonderful business," he argued it does not justify the company's multi-trillion-dollar valuation on its own. Black compared SpaceX's multiples unfavorably to Tesla Inc, noting SpaceX's 2026 EV/Rev of 47x versus Tesla's 14x, and 2026 EV/EBITDA of 110x versus Tesla's 97x.

Bull Case and Strategic Outlook

Speaking on CNBC, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya called SpaceX "an incredible company," having backed the business since its early years. Palihapitiya said investors may be underestimating the strategic benefits of potentially combining SpaceX and Tesla Inc under a single capital structure, as he believes a unified balance sheet could make it easier to fund Elon Musk's broader portfolio of businesses. JPMorgan said SpaceX's public listing could make a potential acquisition of Tesla easier because the company can use its stock as currency. Palihapitiya expects SpaceX to build "an enormous business" in the domestic cellular market before other revenue streams materialize. Black acknowledged long-term opportunities, particularly as airlines like Frontier Group Holdings Inc adopt Starlink for in-flight Wi-Fi.