Micron, SanDisk fall as China expands global memory market share
- Micron and SanDisk fell Thursday despite a broader tech rally, lagging peers like Palantir and Tesla.
- CXMT captured 10% of global DRAM revenue in Q2, up from 4% a year earlier, reducing the top three players' combined share to 87%.
- YMTC increased its NAND revenue share to 14% from 9%, overtaking SanDisk whose share slipped to 11%.
- Micron increased its DRAM share to 24% and NAND share to 15%, bucking some competitive pressure.
- Polymarket traders see a 29% chance of Micron hitting $990 before week's end.
*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK) declined Thursday, underperforming the broader technology sector rally amid data showing rapid gains by Chinese memory manufacturers.
While peers like Palantir and Tesla rose, the memory chip makers faced headwinds from shifting competitive dynamics in the global supply chain.
China Takes Bigger Slice of Memory Market
Counterpoint Research reported that ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) captured 10% of global DRAM revenue in the second quarter, up from 4% a year earlier. This shift reduced the combined share held by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron to 87% from 94%.
In the NAND segment, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) increased its revenue share to 14% from 9%, overtaking SanDisk, whose share slipped to 11% from 12%.
| Company | Segment | Current Share | Prior Year Share | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXMT | DRAM | 10% | 4% | +6 pp |
| YMTC | NAND | 14% | 9% | +5 pp |
| SanDisk | NAND | 11% | 12% | -1 pp |
| Micron | DRAM | 24% | 22% | +2 pp |
| Micron | NAND | 15% | 13% | +2 pp |
These gains occurred during a memory boom rather than a downturn. Counterpoint noted the NAND market grew 70% sequentially in the second quarter as prices jumped 55%, while AI demand kept DRAM supply tight.
China Is Adding More Capacity
CXMT secured a more than 20 billion yuan (roughly $2.9 billion) three-to-five-year DRAM supply agreement with Tencent, Reuters reported in June. Expansion plans would lift monthly production capacity from about 300,000 to 600,000 wafers.
YMTC’s parent plans to raise about $4.9 billion through a Shanghai IPO to fund manufacturing upgrades and research.
TrendForce expects DRAM supply to remain constrained in 2027 but sees NAND entering a looser supply environment in the second half as new capacity comes online.
What the Numbers Show
The divergence in market share trends highlights a structural shift in competitive positioning. While Micron managed to increase its share in both DRAM (+2 pp) and NAND (+2 pp) segments, SanDisk lost ground in its core NAND business (-1 pp) as YMTC overtook it. This suggests SanDisk faces more immediate competitive pressure from Chinese expansion than Micron does in the current cycle.
Traders See $990 in Reach
Micron traded around $941 at the time of writing. Polymarket traders assigned roughly a 29% chance to Micron touching $990 before the end of the week, representing a gain of about 5% from current levels. The market attracted about $17,000 in trading volume.
A separate Polymarket market placed an 8% chance on the U.S. government taking an equity stake in Micron by year-end. These markets point to little immediate concern around Micron regarding China’s growing presence or expectations of Washington intervention.
How might the projected loosening of NAND supply in the second half of the year impact SanDisk's pricing power and margin recovery efforts?
What specific countermeasures could Micron and Samsung implement to defend their DRAM market share against CXMT's planned capacity doubling?
Will the U.S. government's potential equity stake or export controls on memory technology accelerate or hinder Chinese manufacturers' ability to secure advanced fabrication equipment?
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