Prominent investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC warned that Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) risks falling behind in the autonomous driving race as competitors invest heavily in unsupervised technology.

Black highlighted that negative earnings revisions have significantly impacted Tesla’s stock performance year-to-date. He noted that Wall Street earnings estimates for Tesla are lower today than they were one, three, six, and 12 months ago.

Earnings Revisions Impact

Black stated that earnings revisions are the primary driver for growth stocks like Tesla, NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA), and SK hynix Inc. (NASDAQ: SKHY). He pointed out that negative revisions have crushed Tesla’s year-to-date performance, with the stock down 20% YTD compared to the NDX index which is up 15% YTD.

Regarding specific figures, Black cited that the current Tesla earnings estimate of $3.14 is:

• 5% below where it was one month ago
• 15% below where it was six months ago
• 28% below where it was 12 months ago

He specifically referenced these declines against Tesla’s 2028 estimates.

Competitor Investment in Autonomy

Black argued that unsupervised autonomy is becoming "table stakes" to compete in the global automotive business. He claimed that Tesla’s global competitors are investing billions in this space.

According to Black, competitors including Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL/GOOG) Waymo, WeRide Inc. (NASDAQ: WRD), Baidu Inc.’s (NASDAQ: BIDU) Apollo Go, and Amazon.com Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) Zoox are completing over 1 million paid unsupervised autonomous rides per week. He also noted Nvidia’s partnerships with OEMs to pursue autonomous goals.

Contrasting Views on Cybercab

In contrast to Black’s bearish outlook, investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki expressed anticipation for Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab launch event. Gerber described the vehicle as the first "physical AI EV" and stated it was not "ugly" like robotaxis from Waymo and Zoox.

However, Gerber had previously expressed skepticism regarding the scale-up of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, warning that it might be too late by the time the service gathers steam.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Tesla’s declining long-term earnings estimates and its current valuation highlights investor concern over execution risk. While the stock trades at $355.80 in pre-market trading, the consistent downward revision of earnings estimates over the past 12 months suggests a repricing of future growth expectations relative to peers like NVIDIA.

TSLA shares declined 0.08% to $355.80 during pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, stated that the Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) Cybercab is "not ugly" compared to competitors' vehicles ahead of its launch event in Austin, Texas.

Gerber posted on X on Tuesday that a "great thing" about the Cybercab was its aesthetic, contrasting it with "the new Waymo's and the zoox toaster." He added that he hoped Tesla could "launch these in scale and get them working right."

Design and AI Positioning

In a separate post on September 2, 2026, Gerber described Tesla as launching its first "physical AI EV." He noted that while most car companies remain behind in software and hardware, Tesla's approach would be "very interesting to watch this play out."

Skepticism and Expansion

Gerber previously outlined two scenarios for Tesla's Robotaxi expansion. He noted the network would "only grow from here" but warned the expansion might not arrive soon enough for Elon Musk.

Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC expressed skepticism regarding Tesla bulls' predictions on unsupervised autonomy. Black reaffirmed that competitors could also achieve self-driving goals.

China Operations and Price Action

Tesla denied reports of shutting down its Full Self-Driving (FSD) offerings in China. The company stated it had no such plans and confirmed its Shanghai data center for autonomous driving was operational. Tesla also said it was working to expand its workforce in the country.

TSLA shares were down 0.10% to $355.74 during overnight trading on Tuesday.