The Future Fund’s Gary Black argues that Wall Street skepticism toward Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stems from market share assumptions rather than growth potential. Black contends that analysts view unsupervised autonomy as a technology that will quickly become a commodity.

Black responded to retail investor Jo Bhakdi on X, stating that Bhakdi had never worked as a Wall Street analyst. He noted that equity research relies on forward earnings and cash flow projections rather than trailing results or the timing of the first printed number.

The Analyst View on Autonomy

Black explained that Wall Street assumes Tesla will achieve unsupervised autonomy at roughly the same time as a handful of competitors. This assumption strips the technology of its status as an exclusive competitive edge for Tesla.

He compared this dynamic to a dispute five years ago regarding electric vehicle forecasts. At that time, some retail investors projected Tesla would sell 20 million EVs annually by 2030, implying a 20% global market share. Black described that assumption as preposterous then, just as he views current robotaxi valuations today.

Competitive Landscape

Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ: GOOG, NASDAQ: GOOGL) Waymo currently leads the autonomous ride-hailing market with more than 500,000 fully autonomous rides per week. This volume is well ahead of Tesla and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)-backed Zoox.

Waymo recently unveiled its own custom-designed robotaxi chip to further scale operations. The chip offers more than 1,000 TOPS of AI processing power.

What the Numbers Show

Tesla does not separately disclose robotaxi revenue. However, its Services and Other segment grew 50.4% year-over-year in the second quarter to $4.58 billion. This segment includes vehicle servicing, Supercharging, and Full Self-Driving subscriptions.

The Services and Other segment outpaced every other part of the business in terms of growth rate during the period. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Texas robotaxi fleet has grown to 175 vehicles, with Miami added as a fifth market in July.

Market Performance

Tesla shares closed 1.71% lower on Friday at $348.75. The stock fell 0.18% in extended trading sessions.

For the year so far, Tesla shares have fallen 20.39%. Over the past year, the stock is up 5.89%. Benzinga edge rankings show Tesla’s Momentum score in the 13th percentile and its Growth score in the 41st percentile.

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) denied reports that it is winding down its Full Self-Driving (FSD) operations in China, stating the claims were false. The electric vehicle maker confirmed it is not shutting down its Shanghai data center and is instead increasing hiring for self-driving roles.

Operational Updates in China

Despite the denial of shutdown rumors, Tesla initiated its largest recall in the country, affecting nearly 3 million vehicles. The recall addresses issues with emergency door releases following at least 15 deaths reported in 12 crashes where occupants or rescuers could not open the doors of burning vehicles.

Product and Pricing Moves

In the United States, Tesla raised prices for its Cybertruck all-electric pickup truck by up to $5,000 for some trim levels. This price increase comes despite sluggish sales figures for the model.

CEO Elon Musk also fueled speculation about a new family-oriented vehicle, describing it as "way cooler than a minivan." This follows previous unveilings of the Robovan concept.

Broader Expansion Plans

Musk discussed the potential for Tesla’s Optimus robots to become the first "Von Neumann" machine. Separately, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) revealed plans for a new Starbase spaceport in Louisiana. The project is estimated to cost over $100 billion, aims to be self-sustaining, and is expected to create 3,000 jobs.