Marketing professor Scott Galloway has valued Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) at just $10 to $30 per share, describing the stock as "crazy overvalued" despite its recent decline from June’s peak. Speaking on his podcast "The Prof G Pod" on Monday, Galloway attributed his bearish stance to what he termed "financial engineering" in the company’s initial public offering.

Galloway pointed to SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index immediately after listing as a key distortion. He argued that this inclusion forced index funds to purchase shares artificially inflating demand, while the company’s unusually small 5% float at listing further exacerbated valuation pressures. "I think this is a $10 to $30 stock," Galloway stated, adding that CEO Elon Musk may be remembered as a great engineer but not as a financial one.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Galloway’s valuation and institutional consensus highlights significant disagreement on SpaceX’s fair value. While Galloway dismisses analyst targets as "creative writing," the data reveals a wide spectrum of professional opinion. The consensus price target of $227.70 is derived from 31 analysts, with estimates ranging from a low of $115 by HSBC to a high of $800 by Raymond James. This spread of nearly $700 between the lowest and highest targets underscores the uncertainty surrounding the company’s public market valuation.

Wall Street Analysts Aren’t Nearly as Bearish

SpaceX stock experienced significant volatility after its IPO, hitting a high of around $225 before falling 53% to roughly $104. The shares recovered some losses following its first earnings report as a public company and after several companies disclosed multi-billion-dollar stakes in the firm.

Despite the pullback from highs, Galloway maintained that the stock remains expensive. He criticized the influence of investment banking and wealth management fees on Wall Street research, comparing current conflicts of interest to those that led to Henry Blodget’s 1999 prosecution.

Market Sentiment Remains Split

Other prominent investors echo varying degrees of skepticism and optimism. Gary Black of The Future Fund stated he would not get "excited" until shares fall below $100. Former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson called SpaceX "the most overvalued large-cap stock of all time."

Conversely, bulls have pushed back against these valuations. Peter Diamandis, Executive Chairman of the X Prize Foundation, described SpaceX’s infrastructure as "civilizational level" and projected a $10 trillion valuation. Gene Munster also supported a higher valuation, suggesting potential for substantial annual revenue growth.

The stock closed 1.98% lower on Tuesday at $143.34 and fell 0.73% in extended trading. Benzinga edge rankings indicate SpaceX’s stock has a positive price trend in the short, medium, and long term.

Elon Musk stated that Goldman Sachs’ estimate of a $1.8 trillion global space economy by 2035 is too conservative, arguing that reusable rockets, satellite networks, and orbital computing could create a significantly larger market. The comment followed the release of Goldman’s "Second Space Age" report, which projects the sector as a new pillar of the industrial economy driven by lower launch costs and private capital.

SpaceX Financial Performance

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) demonstrated strong growth in its first public quarterly report. Second-quarter revenue nearly doubled to $7.8 billion, while the company maintained a substantial order book. Starlink, a key revenue driver, saw its subscriber base double to 12 million, contributing to a 66% rise in segment revenue.

The company’s total backlog stands at $47.5 billion, reflecting sustained demand for its launch and connectivity services. SpaceX has conducted 78 launches year-to-date, supporting operations across 167 countries.

Orbital Infrastructure Ambitions

Musk’s view that the market will exceed Goldman’s benchmark relies heavily on the expansion of orbital infrastructure. SpaceX plans to launch at least 1,000 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites within a year. Additionally, the company has sought approval for up to one million solar-powered data-center satellites to support orbital AI computing, with demonstrations targeted for late 2027.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between Musk’s qualitative assessment and Goldman’s quantitative forecast highlights differing views on the scalability of reusable launch systems. While Goldman cites launch cost reductions from roughly $55,000 per kilogram during the Space Shuttle era to around $3,000 today, Musk implies that full reusability via Starship could drive costs lower still, unlocking markets such as point-to-point Earth transportation and Mars settlement that are not fully captured in current commercial models.

SpaceX shares were down 0.73% to $142.29 in overnight trading on Tuesday.