Bernstein states that full reusability of the Starship rocket is absolutely central to Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) long-term artificial intelligence valuation and current price levels. Analyst Douglas Harned told CNBC on Monday that solving this problem is necessary for orbital AI infrastructure at scale, noting that the path toward full reusability anchors the kinds of valuations the firm expects.

Revenue Forecasts And Launch Assumptions

Bernstein forecasts roughly $600 billion in SpaceX revenue by 2031. This projection assumes about 3,500 Starship launches in that year. The figure sits below Elon Musk’s earlier projection that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a target Reuters confirmed in June.

SpaceX filings warn that AI compute satellites at scale need full Starship reusability to become economically compelling. Slower turnaround times could raise costs and delay deployments. Reuters reported that SpaceX has spent more than $15 billion developing Starship, which remains central to orbital AI data centers. Musk has previously described achieving fully reusable rockets as a "crazy hard problem."

Orbital AI And Software Upside

SpaceX aims to begin orbital AI compute demonstrations by late 2027, ahead of possible deployments in 2028. Vice President Stephanie Bednarek recently said Starship could make this a reality by carrying the mass needed for large orbital platforms.

Harned noted that SpaceX’s software business could add upside not currently modeled by Bernstein. He pointed to Grok and the recent acquisition of Cursor parent Anysphere as potential wildcards. The company completed its $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere this month after announcing the deal in June. Reuters indicated the move could give xAI a stronger foothold in AI coding, while Cursor’s access to developer requests could improve models like Grok. Cursor serves more than 50,000 enterprises, including 64% of the Fortune 500.

What The Numbers Show

The divergence between Bernstein’s $600 billion revenue forecast for 2031 and Musk’s $1 trillion target for 2030 highlights the sensitivity of valuations to launch frequency and cost structures. With over $15 billion already spent on Starship development, the economic viability of orbital AI hinges on achieving the rapid turnaround rates required to support the assumed 3,500 launches annually. Failure to demonstrate full reusability would directly impact the cost basis of these deployments, potentially widening the gap between analyst models and management aspirations.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) shares are trading above their IPO price after a fresh batch of regulatory disclosures revealed substantial equity positions held by Silicon Valley giants and major institutional investors. The filings highlight a broadening investor base, ranging from university endowments to hedge funds, with Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL, NASDAQ: GOOG) disclosing the largest position among the tech giants.

Major Tech Stakeholders

Alphabet reported holding approximately 551 million SpaceX shares valued at about $94 billion in its 13F-HR filed on August 7. This stake, which traces back to a $900 million investment in 2015, now dwarfs the rest of Google’s disclosed public equity portfolio. The filing indicates that roughly $80 billion of this position remains under short-term lockup, with an additional $14.1 billion restricted through the third quarter of 2027.

Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported holding about 122.76 million SpaceX shares valued near $21 billion in its filing dated August 14. This position reportedly stems from Nvidia’s earlier investment in xAI. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) also entered the SpaceX cap table, disclosing a $565.5 million stake in its 13F-HR filed on August 14.

Institutional and Hedge Fund Exposure

On the institutional side, Harvard Management Co. revealed a $2.2 billion SpaceX position, marking it as the firm’s single largest disclosed equity holding. Citadel Advisors also disclosed a new SpaceX position in its 13F-HR, alongside new stakes in Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ: CBRS) and Quantinuum. Citadel’s overall equity portfolio ballooned 41.5% to $875.1 billion during the period.

The most concentrated bet belongs to Atreides Management. The tech-focused hedge fund’s 13F-HR shows SpaceX making up roughly 42% of its portfolio, a position valued at $4.67 billion at quarter-end. Other notable holders include Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which reported a 154.1-million-share stake worth roughly $26.3 billion, and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan.

A long tail of other reported holders includes Fidelity Investments with 302.6 million shares, Gigafund Management with 171.8 million shares, Baillie Gifford with 51.4 million shares, and BlackRock with about 51 million shares. According to Chaincatcher’s tally, approximately 1,697 reporting entities disclosed SpaceX positions.

Share Unlock Timeline

Separately from Google’s own lockup terms, SpaceX’s broader share-unlock timeline is rolling out gradually rather than in one release. Roughly 912 million shares held by other early backers and employees became tradable on August 6, with an additional 319 million shares due to unlock on August 20, Barron’s reported.

What the Numbers Show

The disparity between Alphabet’s initial investment and current valuation highlights the magnitude of SpaceX’s post-IPO market appreciation. Alphabet invested $900 million in 2015 for a stake now valued at roughly $94 billion. This represents a nominal return multiple of over 100x on the original capital deployed, although the bulk of the position remains illiquid due to lockup restrictions expiring in late 2027. Meanwhile, the high concentration at Atreides Management (42% of portfolio) signals a distinct risk profile compared to diversified institutional holders like Harvard or BlackRock.

Because 13F filings only capture positions as of quarter-end and are disclosed up to 45 days later, these snapshots reflect holdings as of June 30. They do not capture any buying or selling activity since then, meaning the current ownership picture may already differ given SpaceX’s price swings since its debut. As of publication Monday, SPCX stock was up 4.17% at $145.84.