Firefly Aerospace stock falls despite NASA contract wins
Firefly Aerospace Inc. shares fell 9.60% to $18.93 on Thursday, underperforming the broader market despite securing multiple NASA contracts, including a $13 million subcontract for the SkyFall Mars mission and a $144 million award for a Blue Ghost lunar mission. The stock faced pressure from sector-wide selloffs triggered by AST SpaceMobile's debt offering and rising short interest, which reached 13.43%. Technical indicators show the stock in oversold territory, trading below key moving averages, while analysts anticipate an upcoming earnings report with improved revenue projections.

*this image is generated using AI for illustrative purposes only.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. shares traded lower on Thursday, extending a recent decline as the stock moved closer to its latest support levels. The drop significantly outpaced the broader market, with the Nasdaq down 1.04% and the S&P 500 slipping 0.15%, while the Industrials sector gained 0.13%. This weakness appears company-specific despite a string of NASA-related awards and launch milestones. Firefly Aerospace shares were down 9.60% at $18.93 at the time of publication on Thursday.
NASA Contract Wins
Firefly secured several significant contracts recently. On Jul. 7, the company secured a $13 million NASA subcontract to build an aeroshell for the SkyFall Mars mission, targeted for a late-2028 launch. On Jul. 2, Firefly highlighted a roughly $144 million NASA contract for a Blue Ghost lunar mission planned for 2028. Firefly also reported progress toward launching its Alpha rocket from Sweden's Esrange Space Center beginning in 2028. Additionally, on Jun. 30, NASA announced nearly $600 million in lunar-delivery awards, with Firefly securing $144.2 million. Astrobotic received $297.9 million and Intuitive Machines received $148.3 million.
Sector Pressure and Short Interest
The broader space sector experienced sharp declines driven by corporate debt offerings. AST SpaceMobile Inc. stock fell after announcing the pricing of its $1 billion proposed public offering of Convertible Senior Notes. Dilution fears triggered a sector-wide selloff, dragging down the Procure Space ETF and the WisdomTree Space Economy Fund by 2.36%.
Short interest in Firefly Aerospace increased to 13.19 million shares from 11.84 million in the latest reporting period. About 13.43% of the company’s publicly available shares are now sold short. Based on the average daily volume of 7.68 million shares, traders would need about 1.72 days to cover their positions.
Technical and Analyst Outlook
Firefly trades 25.6% below its 20-day simple moving average of $26.11 and 30.9% below its 200-day SMA of $28.11, confirming continued technical weakness. The 20-day SMA remains below the 50-day SMA, reinforcing the bearish near-term trend. Although the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA, that longer-term bullish crossover has not produced sustained upside. The Relative Strength Index stands at 29.39, placing the stock in oversold territory. Key resistance sits near $22, while support is around $18.50.
Firefly is scheduled to report earnings on Aug. 11, 2026. Analysts expect a loss of 51 cents per share, improving from a loss of $5.78 a year earlier. Revenue is projected to rise to $87.87 million from $15.55 million. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $43.17.
| Analyst | Action | Date | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Upgraded to Overweight | Jun. 15 | $50 |
| Morgan Stanley | Maintained Equal-Weight | May 5 | $37 |
| Goldman Sachs | Maintained Neutral | Apr. 20 | $32 |
Will the upcoming earnings report on Aug. 11, 2026, provide enough operational progress to reverse the current bearish technical trend?
Could the rising short interest and sector-wide dilution fears trigger a short squeeze if Firefly secures another major contract?
How will Firefly's 2028 launch milestones impact its revenue trajectory relative to competitors like Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines?






























