Firefly Aerospace Inc. (NASDAQ: FLY) stock rose more than 7% on Monday after KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the shares to Overweight from Sector Weight and established a $50 price target. The upgrade reflects a revised outlook on the company's performance, driven by significant opportunities in lunar exploration, national security programs, and the expanding commercial space economy.

KeyBanc Upgrade Fuels Rally

Analyst Michael Leshock upgraded Firefly Aerospace, citing accelerating growth opportunities tied to NASA's lunar ambitions, national security spending, and the broader expansion of the commercial space economy. Leshock noted that the recent selloff across space stocks following SpaceX’s IPO created an attractive entry point for investors. He argued that long-term sector drivers remain intact, including rising satellite demand, constrained launch capacity, growing defense budgets, and increased NASA activity.

Lunar Programs Drive Growth Outlook

KeyBanc highlighted Firefly's position as a leading commercial space company supporting NASA's lunar initiatives. The firm pointed to the company's Blue Ghost lunar lander, described as the only commercial lander to achieve a fully successful Moon landing, and noted that future lunar missions could provide meaningful upside as NASA expands its Commercial Lunar Payload Services program. The brokerage also raised its revenue estimates after Firefly secured a $75 million MoonFall NASA contract, which underscores the value of its Elytra spacecraft platform. KeyBanc now forecasts 2026 revenue of about $445 million and 2027 revenue of roughly $746 million.

Valuation And Sector View

KeyBanc stated that Firefly trades at about 6.5 times its projected 2027 sales, near the low end of its peer group range of 5 times to 15 times. The firm believes this valuation does not fully reflect the company's exposure to NASA's accelerated lunar programs and its long-term launch opportunities. Beyond lunar exploration, KeyBanc sees additional growth potential from Firefly's launch business and its SciTec missile-tracking software unit, which is positioned to benefit from increasing Pentagon demand for space-based defense and missile-tracking capabilities.