Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) is scheduled to report fourth quarter results after the closing bell on Thursday, Sept. 24. Shares have slumped 17% from their May high to close at $893.93, hitting an 8-month low as investors await guidance on growth amid elevated inflation.

Consensus estimates project quarterly revenue at $94.89 billion, compared to $86.16 billion reported last year. Quarterly earnings are expected at $6.53 per share, up from $5.87 per share in the year-ago period. For the full fiscal year, EPS is expected to jump to $20.5 from $18.2 a year earlier. Annual revenue is projected to exceed $301 billion. The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in six straight quarters and EPS in five straight quarters.

Key Items to Watch: Gas Prices and Traffic

Higher gas prices are a central focus for analysts ahead of the report. Costco reported record gas volumes during the third quarter, and consumers with memberships receive discounts at the retailer’s stations. This surge in usage could increase visits to warehouses, potentially leading to incremental shopping revenue.

A report from Placer.ai shows Costco having 8.2% year-over-year visitor growth during the second quarter of the calendar year (which covers part of May, all of June, and all of July). This outpaced rivals BJ’s (+4.9%), Sam’s Club (+4.7%), Target (+4.7%), and Walmart (+0.7%). Monthly traffic was up 9% in May, 7.8% in June, and 8.3% in July.

The rise in gas prices may also impact membership revenue, a high-margin segment. With gas savings a major reason for sign-ups, membership growth may be higher than in past quarters.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Several Wall Street analysts have recently updated their outlooks for Costco. Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh reiterated an Outperform rating with a $1,160 price target on Sept. 16, 2026. B of A Securities analyst Robert Ohmes maintained a Buy rating but lowered the price target from $1,200 to $1,095 on the same date.

BTIG analyst Robert Drbul reiterated a Buy rating with a $1,125 target on Sept. 3, 2026. Drbul noted that underlying trends supporting the premium valuation remain intact, including healthy comp growth, steady traffic gains, and strong membership fee income growth. He expects net sales of $94 billion, up 11.3% YoY, and earnings of $6.59 per share. Gross margin likely expanded 18 bps despite gas price volatility. Executive memberships grew by 9.6% YoY in Q3 and account for about 75% of sales.

JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers maintained an Overweight rating, cutting the target from $1,110 to $1,100 on July 9, 2026. TD Cowen analyst Oliver Chen reiterated a Buy rating with a $1,175 target on June 3, 2026.

The average consensus price target stands at $1,092, suggesting significant upside from current levels despite the recent sell-off.

Strategic Developments and Balance Sheet

DoorDash Inc. (NASDAQ: DASH) recently expanded its retail and sports presence with a nationwide Costco rollout and a multiyear partnership with the National Hockey League.

Costco maintains a solid balance sheet with over $18.9 billion in cash and equivalents and an additional $1 billion in short-term investments. This liquidity contrasts with just $5.6 billion in long-term debt. A potential catalyst for the stock could be a special dividend and increased buybacks.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between analyst sentiment and technical price action is notable. While the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43, which is lower than its five-year average of 45, it remains below all moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral level of 50, indicating bearish momentum. Options market implied volatility has risen to 35%, higher than the historical volatility of 17%.

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods notes that Costco stock has moved an average of +/- 2.73% after recent earnings releases. Woods identifies support at the $850 level, which is around 5% below current levels, stating it could be an entry point for long-term investors but dangerous if it fails to hold.

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has delivered an average annual return of 15.7% over the past 20 years, outperforming the broader market by 6.47% on an annualized basis.

An initial investment of $1,000 in the stock two decades ago would be worth $18,849.68 today, based on a share price of $924.52 at the time of writing.

Performance Overview

The warehouse club operator currently holds a market capitalization of $410.04 billion. The long-term performance highlights the impact of compounded returns on capital growth over extended periods.

What the Numbers Show

The data illustrates that Costco’s total return significantly exceeded the benchmark index by more than six percentage points annually. This divergence underscores the retailer’s ability to generate excess returns relative to the broader market over a two-decade horizon.