ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is exploring production of more than 110 extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) chip-printing machines for 2028, according to JPMorgan, which described artificial intelligence demand as "very very strong."

The Dutch lithography equipment maker saw its Amsterdam-listed shares fall 5.2% on Monday following a broader selloff in chip stocks. The decline followed calls from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk urging the industry to slow frontier AI capability gains.

Capacity Expansion Plans

JPMorgan analysts met with ASML CFO Roger Dassen and noted that most new EUV orders are now scheduled for delivery in 2028. ASML stated in July that its 2026 low-NA EUV capacity stands at around 65 machines.

The company plans to increase this capacity by 30% in 2027 and is examining another 30% increase for 2028. ASML is already nearly sold out for 2027, with production capacity of at least 80 machines.

JPMorgan identified assembly speed, rather than supply chain constraints, as ASML's primary bottleneck. The bank expects Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) to become a "meaningful customer again" in 2027. Additionally, Elon Musk's planned Terafab is developing as a customer.

Market Context and Valuation

ASML remains the sole commercial supplier of EUV lithography machines, which cost roughly $200 million each. Its customer base includes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM), Samsung Electronics, and Intel. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) relies on foundries like TSMC, which use ASML equipment to manufacture GPUs.

Prediction markets reflect lingering skepticism about an immediate AI downturn. Polymarket assigns a 13% chance to an AI industry bust by December 31, up from 11% the previous week. Approximately $2.4 million has been traded on this contract.

What the Numbers Show

A divergence exists between short-term market sentiment and long-term industrial planning. While ASML shares fell 5.2% on news of potential AI slowdowns, the company is actively expanding capacity for deliveries two years out. With 2027 nearly sold out and 2028 orders already booking, the constraint has shifted from supply chain availability to physical assembly speed, indicating sustained demand despite regulatory caution calls.

ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) has generated an average annual return of 27.76% over the past 15 years, significantly outperforming the broader market by 14.47% on an annualized basis.

The lithography equipment maker currently commands a market capitalization of $678.63 billion. This valuation reflects sustained growth in the semiconductor supply chain, where ASML holds a dominant position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology.

Investment Performance

An investor who purchased $1,000 worth of ASML stock 15 years ago would see that position valued at $41,174.60 today. This calculation assumes a stock price of $1,748.37 at the time of writing.

What the Numbers Show

The divergence between ASML’s total return and its outperformance margin highlights the baseline market gains over this period. With a 27.76% annualized return and a 14.47% premium over the market, the broader index returned approximately 13.29% annually (derived from source figures). This indicates that while general market conditions were favorable, ASML’s specific operational execution and monopoly-like positioning in EUV lithography drove the majority of the excess alpha for shareholders.

Compounding Impact

The primary takeaway from these figures is the exponential effect of compounding returns over long horizons. A 4,117% total gain on the initial capital underscores how consistent double-digit annual growth transforms modest initial capital into substantial wealth over a decade and a half.